Identifying the spatial effects and driving factors of urban PM2.5 pollution in China |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, PR China;2. University of Michigan - Shanghai Jiao Tong University Joint Institute, Shanghai 200240, PR China;1. Centre for Urban Planning and Transport Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China;2. CIAGEB - Global Change, Energy, Environment and Bioengineering Center, University Fernando Pessoa, Porto, Portugal;3. INESC TEC – INESC Technology and Science and FEUP- Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal;1. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China;2. Hubei Engineering and Technology Research Center of Urbanization, Wuhan, China;3. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China;1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China;2. Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI), Madrid 28014, Spain;3. Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford 94305, USA |
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| Abstract: | Exploring exactly where air pollution comes from, and identifying the key factors that influence it, can provide a scientific basis for the rational formulation and effective implementation of air pollution policies in China. Based on the data from 2001 to 2012 covering PM2.5 concentrations in 285 Chinese cities, we use dynamic spatial panel models to empirically analyze the key driving factors of this air pollution. Results show that China’s urban smog demonstrates both obvious global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial agglomeration. There is a significant inverted “U-shaped” curve between economic development level and air pollution, and most cities are in the phase in which pollution is increasing in conjunction with improvements to the economy. Due to a rapid increase in population in built up areas, a high-proportion of secondary industry, a coal-dominated energy structure and increasing traffic intensity, China’s smog problem is becoming more and more serious. FDI probably will not play a future role in mitigating the air pollution. Central heating in winter in northern China further aggravates local smog to a certain extent. Because China’s haze pollution presents path-dependent characteristics and spatial spillover effects in the time dimension and in the space dimension respectively, so smog alleviation policies should be implemented based both on the strategies of maximizing effort and regional joint prevention and control. |
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| Keywords: | Smog Air pollution policy Spatial spillover effect Driving factors Dynamic spatial panel model |
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