内蒙古伊金霍洛旗农业生产力的评估与预测

运用伊金霍洛旗40年的气象与农业统计资料，分析了气候与化肥使用量对于粮食产量的综合影响．选取综合模型为基础，将化肥对粮食气候生产潜力的影响考虑为调节因子，建立了基于气候和化肥使用量的粮食产量评估模型．同时，基于伊金霍洛旗地区人口、气候以及化肥的未来变化情景，预测了未来30年的粮食需求增长量，指出在满足当地人民对粮食作物基本需求的基础上，从目前到2010年期间退耕面积达622～5948hm^2，相当于原有耕地的3％～31％；从2010年到2020年期间退耕面积最大，达3263～8164hm^2，相当于原有耕地的17％42％；随后10年由于土地单位面积的增产是有限度的，而人口继续增长，将导致耕地面积有所回升，但变动幅度不会太大，基本维持在2020年的水平。

Evaluation of agricultural net primary productivity in Yijinhuoluo County, Inner Mongolia

An agricultural net primary productivity model considering both climatic and fertilizer factors was presented, with referencing over 40 years (1959-1998) climatic and agricultural data from Yijinhuoluo County. Based on the scenarios of climate, population and human activities (mainly fertilization) in the next 30 years as well as the demand of local people for food, the changes of the crop area were evaluated. As a result, 622-5948 hm2 could be converted into grassland and forest land from now to the year of 2010, amounting to 3%-31% of the average area between 1990 and 1998; from 2010 to 2020, the converted area should be 3263-8164 hm2, amounting to 17%-42%. In the next 10 years, the area of cropland would rise slightly because of the limitation of increasing yield and population.