| 基于GM(1,1)组合模型的小麦条锈病预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘荣英,马占鸿.基于GM(1,1)组合模型的小麦条锈病预测方法研究[J].生物数学学报,2007,22(2):343-347. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘荣英 马占鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学植物病理系,北京,100094 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;国家科技支撑计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 小麦条锈病的预测是制定小麦条锈病防治方案的重要组成部分.鉴于小麦条锈病病害系统的复杂性和灰色性,首先用Brown指数平滑法和灰色预测建立了甘肃天水地区1995年到2003年的普遍率的单项预测模型,然后采用预测残差方差最小的原则进行优化组合,从而获得更为精确的预测模型和预测值,拟合率达到94.5%.
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| 关 键 词： | Brown指数平滑 灰色预测 组合模型 小麦条锈病 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-9626（2007）02-0343-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-06-05 |
The Prediction Methodology,of Wheat Stripe Rust Using Combination Model based on GM(1,1) |
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| LIU Rong-ying,MA Zhan-hong.The Prediction Methodology,of Wheat Stripe Rust Using Combination Model based on GM(1,1)[J].Journal of Biomathematics,2007,22(2):343-347. |
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| Authors: | LIU Rong-ying MA Zhan-hong |
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| Institution: | Dcpartment of Plant Pathologyy, China Agriculture university, Beijing 100094 China |
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| Abstract: | The forecast of wheat stripe rust is one of the most important parts in making wheat stripe rust regulating measures.Whereas the complexity and grayness of its disease system, first Brown's mathematical Model of Linear exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1)to make a fore- cast of the incidence in GANSU TianShui District from year 1995 to 2003 are established.Then based on the two model,a combination model which has high accuracy is established according to the principle that the variance of residual is the lowest.The accuracy of testing-forecast is up to 94.5%. |
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| Keywords: | Brown's mathematical model GM(1 1) Combination model Wheat stripe rust |
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