末次冰盛期以来香果树潜在地理分布格局变迁

香果树是中国特有的单种属孑遗树种，探讨末次冰盛期以来香果树在中国的潜在地理分布格局及其变化，对研究茜草科乃至中国亚热带植物区系的系统发育、古生态和古气候变迁等具有重要作用。研究基于最大熵MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS空间分析技术，利用香果树分布点位信息与气候数据，构建其在末次冰盛期(LGM)、全新世中期(MID)、当前(1960—1990年)以及未来(2061—2080年)的潜在地理分布格局，探明其分布格局的变化趋势，揭示引起其潜在地理分布格局改变的关键因子。结果表明，香果树当前适生区总面积约197.575×10⁴ km²,主要位于中国亚热带地区，其中高适生区集中分布于四川盆周山地、武陵山与武夷山地区，最干季度平均温、最湿月降水量、最冷季度降水量是限制其分布的主要气候因子。末次冰盛期时香果树广泛分布于中国亚热带地区，随后适生区开始缩减且向内陆退缩，全新世中期后适生区面积继续缩减并向高纬度地区迁移。随着全球气候变暖，在不同排放情景下香果树适宜生境面积均进一步缩减并向西与高纬度地区迁移。总体而言，从末次冰盛期至未来，香果树适生区呈现持续缩减并向西...

Prediction of potential geographical distribution patterns of Emmenopterys henryi since the Last Glacial Maximum

Emmenopterys henryi is a Chinese endemic relict, autogenous, and endangered tree mono-species which is endemic to endangered China. To investigate the potentially geographical distribution pattens and its changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), it is essential to research the phylogeny of flora, changes of paleoecology and paleoclimate in subtropical China. We used the distribution data of Emmenopterys henryi and climatic variables to construct models of for potential geographical distribution in the LGM, Mid Holocene (MID), current (1960-1990), and future (2061-2080) of Emmenopterys henryi based on MaxEnt model and spatial analysis techniques of ArcGIS. The distribution of each climatic factor and the rule of changes of geographical distribution patterns were quantitatively investigated. The results showed that about 197.575×10⁴ km² area was suitable for Emmenopterys henryi to exist. It''s mainly located in the mountainous region around Sichuan Basin, Wuling mountainous area and Wuyi mountainous area. The average temperature of dry season, rainfall of rainy season and rainfall of the coldest season are three most influential factors of determining distribution of Emmenopterys henryi. In LGM, Emmenopterys henryi were widely distributed in subtropical China, then the suitable area for them to exist was contracted landward. In MID, it continued to be contracted and move to high latitudes. Now, the area suitable for Emmenopterys henryi to exist was contracted and moved to high latitudes and the west area continuely in different emission circumstances. In conclusion, there is a trend of contracting and moving to high latitudes and the west area for the area suitable for Emmenopterys henryi to exist. It is recommended to carry out real-time monitoring, artificial breeding and ex situ preservation to preserve the existing Emmenopterys henryi.