基于海岛生态脆弱性模拟的朱家尖岛空间管控对策

近10年来,桥隧连陆型海岛数量快速增长,这类工程的建设改善了海岛的交通可达性,使得海岛旅游人口快速增长,实现了海岛经济的快速发展.而旅游人口的快速增加和海岛土地利用结构的变化,使得海岛生态脆弱性增加.为实现海岛生态系统的科学管理,科学评价和预测海岛生态系统脆弱性变化趋势及敏感区域,制定不同区域的生态系统管理方式显得尤为迫切.本研究构建了海岛生态脆弱性评价模型,评估了朱家尖岛生态脆弱性现状,以2015年作为基期模拟未来20年旅游人口和土地利用变化,以及未来20年的海岛生态脆弱性变化,在此基础上分析脆弱性变化的敏感区域,并提出相应的管理措施.结果表明:朱家尖岛目前的生态系统处于良好状态,中度和重度脆弱性面积相对较小.随着朱家尖岛旅游人口增加和岛陆开发强度的增强,海岛生态系统趋于脆弱,其中,高脆弱性面积增加,低脆弱性面积减少.针对脆弱性评估的结果结合敏感性分析,将朱家尖岛划分为禁止开发区、限制开发区和有条件开发区,以实现精细化管理.

Spatial management strategy of Zhujiajian Island based on island ecological vulnerability simulation

In the past decade, the number of islands fixed link with mainland has been increasing rapidly. The construction of such projects improves the accessibility of islands, which results in a rapid increase of tourists and economic income. However, the rapid change of land use and increases of tourists will make the islands more vulnerable. It is urgent to formulate ecosystem management strategy for island ecosystems based on the scientifical prediction of the island ecological vulnerability and accurate identification of sensitive areas. Island ecological vulnerability assessment model was used to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Zhujiajian Island. Taking 2015 as the starting date, we simulated the changes of tourists and land use, as well as the changes of island ecological vulnerability in the next 20 years. Then, the management strategy was formulated based on the vulnerability assessment and sensitive analysis. The results showed that the ecosystem of Zhujiajian Island was in good condition now, with limited area at moderate and severe vulnerable status. With the rapid increases of tourists and island development intensity, the ecological vulnerability of the island tended to more vulnerability with the increases of severe vulnerability and shrink of low vulnerability. According to the vulnerability assessment and sensitivity analysis, the Zhujiajian Island could be divided into prohibited development zones, restricted development zones and conditional development zones with different ecosystem management strategies.