Upward migration of vascular plants following a climate warming trend in the Alps

The aim of this study was to understand (1) whether warmer climatic conditions affected the vascular plant species composition, (2) the magnitude and rate of altitudinal changes in species distributions, and (3) whether an upward migration of alpine plants is connected to wind dispersal of diaspores. We compared historical records (1954–1958) with results from recent plant surveys (2003–2005) from alpine to nival ecosystems in the Rhaetian Alps, N-Italy. The presence of all vascular plant species and their maximum altitude were recorded along a continuous altitudinal transect of 730 m. An increase in species richness from 153 to 166 species was observed. Moreover, 52 species were recorded from altitudes 30–430 m higher than their 1950s limits, which corresponds to a median migration rate of 23.9 m/decade. In order to explain the observed migrations, the species wind-dispersal ability (diaspore weight and morphology) and the air temperature variation from 1926 to 2003 were considered. Species with more pronounced altitudinal shifts possess lighter diaspores. The highest increase in species richness was found between 2800 and 3100 m a.s.l.; this appears to be related to an estimated shift of the permafrost limit by +240 m during the last 50 years. The mean air temperature in the region rose by +1.6 °C in summer and by +1.1 °C in winter within this period. Climate warming is therefore considered as a primary cause of the observed upward migration of high mountain plants. Calculated altitudinal migration rates, however, varied remarkably among species. This would imply differential abilities of species to persist in an increasingly warmer climate. Species-specific conservation measures, including ex situ conservation, may therefore be required.