Estimation of dieback process caused by herbivory in an endangered root-sprouting shrub species,Paliurus ramosissimus (Lour.) Poir., using a shoot-dynamics matrix model

Mortality, a critical parameter for population dynamics, is difficult to measure in long-lived trees or clonal herbaceous species because of the extremely low frequency of deaths. A model based on shoot recruitment would be helpful to estimate the population fate of species without a sufficient number of observed deaths. Existing matrix models are applicable to the dynamics of physiologically independent shoots, but not to physiologically dependent ones. We developed a shoot-dynamics model for plants with physiologically-dependent shoots, and used the model to estimate the effects of herbivory and conservation measures on the dynamics of a long-lived, shoot-sprouting shrub species, Paliurus ramosissimus (Rhamnaceae). Two populations of the endangered shrub have been severely damaged by herbivory by sika deer. The damage was mainly to new sprouting shoots. No deaths of individual plants were observed during an 8-year survey, and we could not estimate mortality. Thus, prediction of population dynamics based on births and deaths of individuals was impossible. Because P. ramosissimus is a shoot-sprouting species, we instead estimated the decline of individuals using a shoot-dynamics model. Using this model, we estimated the time to an 80 % decrease in shoot number per individual in the two populations at 37.8 and 37.2 years. These lengths suggest an immediate need for conservation measures to prevent herbivory even though no death of any individual was observed in the field survey. The estimated recovery times from the herbivory damage were 28.7 and 29.2 years if herbivory of new shoots is completely prevented by conservation measure.