A more informative method for analyzing reproductive success

ABSTRACT.   Few investigators have examined how a female's prior history (i.e., number of clutches laid previously and whether those nesting attempts were successful or not) might influence the success of a particular clutch. Our objective was to determine the seasonal change in the mean number of fledglings successfully leaving nests in a population of Prairie Warblers ( Dendroica discolor ). To do so, we calculated the success of each clutch in the laying sequence (i.e., first, second, third, …, n ^th) and sorted them further by whether they were laid before (first-brood clutches) or after (second-brood clutches) the first brood fledged. In our sample population of 70 females we knew the fate of all clutches laid during a breeding season. Although the number of fledglings per successful clutch varied slightly, the probability that a clutch would be successful (i.e., produce at least one fledgling) and the number of fledglings per nest attempt increased during the breeding season. Thus, later clutches were more productive than earlier clutches. The low probability of producing a successful first clutch early in the breeding season would seem to favor selection for females that wait until later in the season to begin breeding. However, the seasonal reproductive success of females may be more dependent on breeding early (increasing the number of clutches laid in a season) than on the higher probability of success with later clutches. Our results indicate that further study of seasonal changes in reproductive success and their causes is needed.