Development of a model for prediction of target insect mortality following field application of a Bacillus thuringiensis formulation

A model for predicting mortality of Schizura concinna larvae on Cercis occidentalis trees following application of Bacillus thuringiensis formulations is based on an estimation of the effective dose. This is calculated from the initial application level and field persistence characteristics of the pathogen and from the feeding rate of the target insects. Using the estimated effective dose and the time the pathogen was on the host plant, the probability of larval mortality is calculated by means of a multiple logistic dose-response model. Predicted mortalities for B. thuringiensis applications at concentrations 0.00025, 0.0025, 0.025, and 0.25%, $\text{w}\text{v}$, were 7.7, 23.3, 46.2, and 87.1%, respectively. Corresponding, observed mortalities adjusted for larval loss due to forces unrelated to the B. thuringiensis application were 6, 54, 66, and 100%.