Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range |
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Authors: | Arnald Marcer Belén Méndez‐Vigo Carlos Alonso‐Blanco F Xavier Picó |
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Institution: | 1. CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain;2. Univ Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain;3. Departamento de Genética Molecular de Plantas, Centro Nacional de Biotecnología (CNB), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain;4. Departamento de Ecología Integrativa, Estación Biológica de Do?ana (EBD), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Sevilla, Spain |
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Abstract: | Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units. |
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Keywords: |
Arabidopsis thaliana
genetic structure global climate change potential distribution range species distribution models |
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