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Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine,freshwater and terrestrial environments |
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| Authors: | STEPHEN J. THACKERAY TIMOTHY H. SPARKS MORTEN FREDERIKSEN SARAH BURTHE PHILIP J. BACON JAMES R. BELL MARC S. BOTHAM TOM M. BRERETON PAUL W. BRIGHT LAURENCE CARVALHO TIM CLUTTON‐BROCK ALISTAIR DAWSON MARTIN EDWARDS J. MALCOLM ELLIOTT RICHARD HARRINGTON DAVID JOHNS IAN D. JONES JAMES T. JONES DAVID I. LEECH DAVID B. ROY W. ANDY SCOTT MATT SMITH RICHARD J. SMITHERS IAN J. WINFIELD SARAH WANLESS |
| Affiliation: | 1. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK;2. Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71 C, 60‐625 Poznań, Poland;3. 1Formerly: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire PE28 2LS, UK.;4. NERI, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark;5. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuk, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK;6. Marine Scotland, Freshwater Laboratory, Faskally, Pitlochry, Perthshire, PH16 5LB, UK;7. Rothamsted Insect Survey, Department of Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK;8. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK;9. Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK;10. School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK;11. Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK;12. The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK;13. The Freshwater Biological Association, The Ferry Landing, Far Sawrey, Ambleside, Cumbria LA22 0LP, UK;14. People's Trust for Endangered Species, 15 Cloisters House, 8 Battersea Park Road, London SW8 4BG, UK;15. British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, UK;16. National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, Henwick Road, Worcester WR2 6AJ, UK;17. The Woodland Trust, Autumn Park, Dysart Road, Grantham, Lincolnshire NG31 6LL, UK |
| Abstract: | Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services. |
| Keywords: | climate linear mixed effects models meta‐analysis phenology traits trophic mismatch |