基于生理发育时间和生长度日的烤烟生育期预测模型

利用2010-2011年在云南具有代表性的植烟县开展烤烟种植试验数据，建立基于生理发育时间和生长度日的生育期模型，再利用农业气象观测资料进行模型验证.结果表明：在移栽期之前，两种预测模型都有很好的模拟效果，平均误差日数较低，移栽期之后，受移栽、打顶等农事活动的影响，误差日数增大；使用生理发育时间法进行模拟的预测值与实测值符合度较好，尤其是在移栽期之前，平均误差日仅为2 d，预测精度明显高于生长度日法；受光周期效应的影响，生理发育时间模型在较低纬度地区的模拟效果偏差，而在较高纬度地区模拟精度较高.

Simulation model of the development stages of flue-cured tobacco based on physiological development period and growing degree days

Based on the 2010-2011 experimental data of planting flue-cured tobacco in its represen tative production counties of Yunnan Province, Southwest China, the models of the tobacco plant physiological development period and growing degree days were established, and validated by the observation data from local agro-meteorological stations. The two models had good performance at pre-transplanting stage, and the errors of the estimated dates were smaller. After transplanting stage, the errors of the estimated dates were larger, because of the disturbances from farming activities such as transplanting and topping. The simulated values based on the tobacco plant physiological development period had a higher coincidence with the observed values, especially at the pre transplanting stage, with the errors of the estimated dates being smaller than two days. As affected by the photoperiod effect, the model of tobacco plant physiological development period fitted better in high latitude regions than in low latitude regions.