A dynamic mass balance model for phosphorus fluxes and concentrations in coastal areas

This paper presents a general, process-based mass balance model (CoastMab) for total phosphorus (TP) in defined coastal areas (at the ecosystem scale). The model is based on ordinary differential equations and calculates inflow, outflow and internal fluxes on a monthly basis. It consists of four compartments: surface water, deep water, erosion/transportation areas for fine sediments and accumulation areas for fine sediments. The separation between surface water and deep water is not done based on water temperature, but on sedimentological criteria instead (from the theoretical wave base). There are algorithms for all major internal TP fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, mixing and burial). Validations were performed using data from 21 different Baltic coastal areas. The results show that the model predicts monthly TP in water and chlorophyll a very well (generally within the uncertainty bands of the empirical data). The model has also been put through sensitivity tests, which show that the most important factor regulating the predictions of the model is generally the TP concentration in the sea beyond the coast. The model is simple to apply, since all driving variables may be accessed from maps or monitoring programs. The driving variables include coastal area, section area (between the defined coastal area and the adjacent sea), mean and maximum depths, latitude (used to predict water temperatures, stratification and mixing), salinity and TP concentration in the sea. Many of the model structures are general and could be used for areas other than those included in this study, e.g., for open coasts, estuaries or tidal coasts, as well as for other substances than phosphorus.