基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的新安江流域生态补偿政策绩效评估

为了改善流域生态环境,我国推行了流域生态补偿试点,逐渐形成具有我国特色的流域生态补偿模式和机制,目前全国已有十余个省份实行了流域生态补偿政策。生态补偿政策的推行对流域生态环境改善发挥了极其重要的作用,同时也对流域内的社会、经济、健康等方面带来不同程度的影响。如何科学、合理的界定和评价补偿政策带来的社会、经济以及生态环境影响及影响的程度对政策的实施和改善意义重大,这也是流域生态补偿政策得以继续推行的重要条件。在总结和梳理政策效果评价方法的基础上,结合流域生态补偿政策的特点,建立了基于层次分析（AHP）-模糊综合评价法的政策评价模型以及生态补偿政策绩效评估指标体系,并以我国首个跨省流域生态补偿机制试点-新安江流域为研究对象,评估了新安江流域生态补偿政策在第一个试点阶段（2012-2014年）期间的绩效。结果表明：新安江流域生态补偿政策实施效果整体较好,但对区域经济和社会发展的促进作用不显著,并且需要从政策目标的确定、政策体系的健全、政策设计与执行等方面进行完善。建议推动建立流域生态补偿动态评估机制,研究制定相关技术指南;重视强化政策的配套机制能力建设,完善区域联动长效机制和信息共享;促进补偿政策目标从生态资源到生态资本转化,改善和保障河流生态基流;拓宽流域补偿资金来源渠道,鼓励多元主体进入环保市场。在谋求生态效益最大化的前提下,进一步统筹规划经济和社会效益,更好地运用经济杠杆进行流域治理和生态保护,实现经济、社会、生态的共赢。

Evaluation of ecological compensation policy for Xin'an River Basin based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Method

In order to improve the ecological environment of the river basin, China has implemented the pilot scheme of watershed ecological compensation, and gradually molded a watershed ecological compensation model and mechanism with Chinese distinguishing feature. At present, more than ten provinces have implemented watershed ecological compensation policies. The implementation of ecological compensation policy has played an extremely important role in improving the ecological environment of the basin, and it also had different degrees of impact on the social, economic and health aspects of the river basin. How to scientifically define and evaluate the impacts of watershed ecological compensation on the society, economy and ecological environment is of great significance to the implementation and improvement of the policy, which is also an important condition for the continuous implementation of this policy. In this study, by summarizing the evaluation methods of policy effects and combining the characteristics of watershed ecological compensation, a policy evaluation model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-Fuzzy Comprehensive Method and the performance evaluation index system of ecological compensation policy were established to evaluate the performance of Xin''an River Basin ecological compensation policy during the first pilot phase (2012-2014). The results showed that the implementation of the ecological compensation policy in the Xin''an River Basin was effective. However, from the perspective of promotion to the regional economic and social development, the feedback was not significant. Moreover, the determination of policy objectives, the improvement of policy system, the policy design and implementation required to be enhanced. Eventually, it is suggested to promote the establishment of a dynamic assessment mechanism for watershed ecological compensation and formulate relevant technical guidelines; intensify the infrastructure of supporting system for policy, improve the regional linkage long-term mechanism and information sharing; stimulate the objective of compensation policy transferred from ecological resources to ecological capital, improve the river''s ecological flow; broaden the entrance channels for compensation funds in river basins, as well as encouraging various diversity of institution to invest into the environmental protection market. On the premise of seeking maximum ecological benefits, it should further make overall plans for economic and social benefits and make better use of economic levers for watershed governance and ecological protection to achieve a win-win situation for economy, society, and ecology. and promote the upgrading of watershed ecological compensation from the "Xin''an River Model" to the "China Model".