城市建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力评估方法和模型

建筑屋顶作为闲置的土地资源已成为光伏发电重要的潜在空间，屋顶光伏发电是脱碳电力供应的主要方式，将在实现城市碳中和进程中发挥重要作用。对建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力进行精确评估将有助于分布式光伏的科学规划和合理布局，提升土地利用效率。旨在对建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力影响因素和评估方法，以及光伏发电潜力主要评估模型进行系统性阐述，比较分析不同评估方法的优缺点，总结未来研究的重点方向。现有研究表明，建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力评估已从经验取值发展为定量空间分析，评估尺度、评估精度和评估成本已经成为不同评估方法综合权衡的重点。现有三种评估方法中，采样法计算成本和数据成本较低，但评估结果不确定性较大、精度较低；全面评估法评估精度较高，但数据获取成本和计算成本较高；机器学习法能够高效挖掘大数据潜力，且算法性能显著提升，因而相较于其他方法更适宜大尺度建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力评估。当前建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力评估仍然存在大尺度精细评估缺乏、评估结果不确定性大以及评估模型计算量大等问题。未来研究重点应关注三个方面：1)建立适宜不同区域的高精度简化模型并完善技术潜力评估模型；2)阐明建筑屋顶光伏发电潜力的影响因素，为代表性建筑分类体系...

Review of rooftop solar photovoltaic electrical potential estimation: approaches and models

Urban rooftops, one kind of unused land resource, have become the optimal room for solar photovoltaic deployment. Rooftop solar photovoltaic would be the main source of decarbonizing electricity supply and will play a leading role in the realization of future net-zero carbon cities. An accurate estimation of rooftop solar photovoltaic electrical potential contributes to scientific programming and reasonable arrangement of distributed photovoltaic, land-use efficiency improvement, and ecosystem disturbance reduction. This study aims to comprehensively review rooftop solar photovoltaic potential influencing factors, estimation approaches, and models. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach were discussed, and key directions for future research were summarized. The results show that the rooftop solar photovoltaic electrical potential estimation based on rules of thumb has changed into quantitative and spatial analysis. The adoption of an optimal approach for estimation should trade-off between the assessment scale, accuracy and cost. Among the three current approaches, the sample methodology has lower computational cost and data cost, but uncertainties and less accuracy are the main problems. The complete census methodology has higher evaluation accuracy but is limited by high data acquisition and computing costs. The machine learning method is more advantageous than other approaches for large-scale electrical potential estimation due to its ability in big data mining and algorithm performance improvement. However, there are several problems in the research field, including the gap in accurate large-scale assessment, the uncertainties of outcomes and processes, and the lack of specificity. Three aspects should be highly valued in future studies:1) establish a high-precision simplified model suitable for different regions and complete the technical potential assessment model; 2) figure out the influencing factors of rooftop solar photovoltaic electrical potential, and provide a theoretical basis for the improvement of the representative building classification system and the selection of key feature values; 3) incorporate the impacts of photovoltaic installation scenarios, rural roof quality, urban public building roof ownership and energy demand on building rooftop photovoltaic power potential into the assessment framework.