Variation partitioning for range expansion of an introduced species: the common waxbill Estrilda astrild in Portugal

The common waxbill Estrilda astrild was first introduced to Portugal, from Africa, in 1964, from where it has spread to much of the country and to Spain. We modelled the expansion of this species on a 20×20-km UTM grid in 4-year periods from 1964 to 1999. Colonisation process on a grid was modelled as a function of several biophysical and spatio-temporal variables through the fitting of several multiple logistic equations. Variation partitioning confirmed the importance of the spatial-temporal component, explaining 33% of the total variation, followed by the combined effects of both environmental and spatial-temporal variables (around 25%). Only 11% of the total variation can be attributed strictly to the considered environmental factors.