Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon |
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Authors: | Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira Talita Oliveira Assis Eloi L Dalla‐Nora Peter Mann Toledo Roberto Araújo Oliveira Santos‐Junior Mateus Batistella Andrea Santos Coelho Elza Kawakami Savaget Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz Aragão Carlos Afonso Nobre Jean Pierre H Ometto |
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Institution: | 1. Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), S?o José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;2. Research and Postgraduate Coordination, Emilio Goeldi Museum of Pará (MPEG), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Belém, PA, Brazil;3. Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), Brasília, DF, Brazil;4. Center for Environmental Studies and Research (NEPAM), State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz, Campinas, SP, Brazil;5. Amazon Regional Center (CRA), Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Parque de Ciência e Tecnologia do Guamá, Belém, PA, Brazil;6. Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Group (TREES), Remote Sensing Division, Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), S?o José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;7. Higher Education Improvement Coordination (CAPES), Ministry of Education, Brasília, DF, Brazil |
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Abstract: | Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km2 yr?1 in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large‐scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land‐use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative ‘Sustainability’ scenario in which we envision major socio‐economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear‐cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old‐growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation‐driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km2 yr?1) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation – in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 – even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old‐growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear‐cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance. |
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Keywords: | Brazilian Amazon CO2 emissions deforestation forest degradation forest transition scenarios secondary vegetation sustainability |
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