Quantifying the erosion effect on current carbon budget of European agricultural soils at high spatial resolution

The idea of offsetting anthropogenic CO₂ emissions by increasing global soil organic carbon (SOC), as recently proposed by French authorities ahead of COP21 in the ‘four per mil’ initiative, is notable. However, a high uncertainty still exits on land C balance components. In particular, the role of erosion in the global C cycle is not totally disentangled, leading to disagreement whether this process induces lands to be a source or sink of CO₂. To investigate this issue, we coupled soil erosion into a biogeochemistry model, running at 1 km² resolution across the agricultural soils of the European Union (EU). Based on data‐driven assumptions, the simulation took into account also soil deposition within grid cells and the potential C export to riverine systems, in a way to be conservative in a mass balance. We estimated that 143 of 187 Mha have C erosion rates <0.05 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, although some hot‐spot areas showed eroded SOC >0.45 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1. In comparison with a baseline without erosion, the model suggested an erosion‐induced sink of atmospheric C consistent with previous empirical‐based studies. Integrating all C fluxes for the EU agricultural soils, we estimated a net C loss or gain of ?2.28 and +0.79 Tg yr^?1 of CO₂eq, respectively, depending on the value for the short‐term enhancement of soil C mineralization due to soil disruption and displacement/transport with erosion. We concluded that erosion fluxes were in the same order of current carbon gains from improved management. Even if erosion could potentially induce a sink for atmospheric CO₂, strong agricultural policies are needed to prevent or reduce soil erosion, in order to maintain soil health and productivity.