基于ARIMA-ANN模型的生态安全评价及预测——以河西走廊城市群为例

生态安全是社会经济可持续发展的基本保障,研究区域生态安全时空格局历史演变与发展趋势具有重要意义。本文选取河西走廊地区5个地级市为对象,建立基于PSR-EES模型的生态安全评价指标体系,采用综合指数法计量其2008-2017年期间10年生态安全值,进而采用ARIMA-ANN模型预测未来该区域生态安全变化趋势。结果表明:河西走廊地区生态安全呈波动上升状态,演变特征与区域的生态保护规划与政策措施相吻合;各地级市生态安全等级与理想状态存在不同程度的差距;张掖、金昌、酒泉三市存在一定的生态风险;采用ARIMA单项模型、ARIMA-ANN组合模型对河西走廊区域生态安全变化趋势进行预测的平均相对误差、相关系数分别为2.01%、0.8852(ARIMA)和1.09%、0.9665(ARIMA-ANN);ARIMA-ANN组合模型预测河西走廊地区2020年的生态安全值达0.8107,处于V级。本研究证明,ARIMA-ANN组合模型在区域生态安全演变评价和发展趋势预测中获得较高的准确度和精度,对优化区域生态空间布局和安全管理具有实践价值。

Ecological security evaluation and prediction based on ARIMA-ANN model: A case study of Hexi Corridor urban agglomeration

Ecological security is the prerequisite for sustainable development of society and economy. It is of great significance to study the historical evolution and development trend of regional ecological security. An ecological security evaluation index system was established based on PSREES model. The comprehensive index method was adopted to calculate the ecological security values of five cities in the Hexi Corridor urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2017. ARIMA-ANN composite model was used to predict the future trend of regional ecological security. The ecological security in Hexi Corridor showed a fluctuating and rising state. The evolution characteristics were consistent with the regional ecological protection planning and policy. The ecological security level of each city was different from the ideal state. The security value of pressure layer in Zhangye,Jingchan and Jiuquan were relatively low,with some potential ecological risk. The ecological security trends in the Hexi Corridor urban agglomeration were predicted using ARIMA model and ARIMA-ANN model,with the results showing the average relative error and correlation coefficient of 2.01%,0. 8852(ARIMA),and 1. 09%,0. 9665(ARIMA-ANN). Moreover,the ARIMAANN composite model predicted that ecological security value of Hexi Corridor would reach0.8107(level V) in 2020. This study verified the high accuracy and precision of ARIMA-ANN composite model for evaluating regional ecological security evolution and predicting development trend. It is of vital practical value for the optimization of regional ecological spatial layout and security management.