Predictability of coral bleaching from synoptic satellite and in situ temperature observations |
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Authors: | T R McClanahan M Ateweberhan C Ruiz Sebastián N A J Graham S K Wilson J H Bruggemann M M M Guillaume |
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Institution: | (1) Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Programs, Bronx, NY, USA;(2) Coral Reef Conservation Project, P.O. Box 99470, Mombasa, Kenya;(3) Advanced Research Center for Applied Microbiology, University of the Western Cape, Belville, South Africa;(4) School of Marine Science and Technology, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK;(5) Australian Institute of Marine Science, TMC, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia;(6) Laboratoire d’Ecologie marine (ECOMAR), Université de la Réunion, B.P. 7151, 97715 Saint-Denis ms cx 9, La Réunion, France;(7) Département des Milieux et Peuplements Aquatiques, UMR 5178 CNRS-UPMC-MNHN, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, 61 rue de Buffon, 75005 Paris, France |
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Abstract: | Satellite and compiled in situ observations of sea surface temperatures have greatly increased the ability to detect anomalous
and persistent warm water and are being widely used to predict climate change, coral bleaching and mortality. A field-based
synoptic view of coral bleaching spanning eight countries and ∼35° of latitude in the western Indian Ocean tested the accuracy
of synoptic temperature data derived from satellites and shipboard data to detect and predict bleaching during 2005. The ability
to predict the degree of bleaching based on degree heating weeks data was moderate, but increased when past temperature anomalies
and coral community susceptibility were included. It is estimated that slightly more than half of the bleaching response is
due to anomalous warm water and nearly half due to taxa and community level acclimation or adaptation, where these two factors
have opposing effects. Cumulative temperature anomalies do identify general areas with bleaching but both large over and underestimates
of bleaching intensity were observed. Consequently, field observations are needed to confirm the synoptic satellite predictions
for particular reefs, particularly where acclimation and reorganization of the coral community have occurred due to past bleaching
events. |
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Keywords: | Acclimation Degree heating weeks (DHW) 1998 ENSO Seawater temperature Western Indian Ocean |
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