1980-2030年石羊河流域生态系统碳储存服务对土地利用变化的响应

陆地生态系统碳储量是表征碳储存服务的重要指标，其变化与土地利用变化存在着密不可分的关系。预测未来土地利用变化对认识区域生态系统服务及其变化具有重要的意义。利用石羊河流域1980-2020年土地利用数据，运用InVEST模型和FLUS模型，探究了石羊河流域在过去40年间和未来自然变化、生态保护、耕地保护3种情景下的土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。结果表明：石羊河流域在1980-2020年间耕地、草地、建设用地呈增加趋势，林地、水域、未利用地呈减少的趋势。40年间石羊河流域碳储量增加了7.98×10⁶t，增幅为1.44%。石羊河流域碳储量呈现明显的空间分异，碳储量较高的地区主要分布在上游祁连山区和中下游绿洲地区，这种分布格局与流域内土地利用类型的空间分布密切相关。至2030年，自然变化、生态保护、耕地保护情景下石羊河流域碳储量分别为563×10⁶t、563.43×10⁶t、564.98×10⁶t，较2020年分别增加了0.45%、0.53%和0.80%，其中生态保护情景与其他两种情景相比既保护了生态环境还保障了生产，对未来土地利用规划有一定指导意义。

Response of ecosystem carbon storage service to land-use change in Shiyang River Basin from 1980 to 2030

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystem is an important indicator of the quality of carbon storage services, and the change of terrestrial ecosystem is closely related to the change of land-use. Therefore, predicting the land-use change in the study area is of great significance to understand the ecosystem service quality and their changes with time in the study area. At the same time, it can also characterize the level of regional economic development, environmental quality and provide some theoretical support for regional ecological protection, economic development and policy-making. Based on this theory, this paper uses the land-use data of Shiyang River Basin from 1980 to 2020, uses the InVEST model and the FLUS model to explore the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage services in Shiyang River Basin in the past 40 years, and sets up three scenarios of natural change, ecological protection and farmland protection in 2030 according to the actual situation, to explores the impact of land-use change on carbon storage services in the basin in the next 10 years. The results show that the farmland, grassland and construction land in Shiyang River Basin increased year by year from 1980 to 2020. On the contrary, forest land, water area and unused land showed a decreasing trend in the general trend. During the 40 years, the carbon storage of Shiyang River Basin increased by 7.98×10⁶t, with an increase rate of 1.44%. At the same time, the carbon storage in Shiyang River Basin showed obviously spatial differentiation characteristics in space. The high-value areas of carbon storage were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Qilian Mountains, the oasis area in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. These areas are forest land and grassland concentrated distribution areas. It can be seen that the distribution pattern of carbon storage is closely related to the spatial distribution pattern of various types of land-use in the basin. By 2030, the carbon reserves of Shiyang River Basin under the three scenarios of natural change, ecological protection and farmland protection is 563×10⁶t, 563.43×10⁶t, 564.98×10⁶t, respectively, which is increased by 0.45%, 0.53% and 0.80% respectively compared with 2020. Compared with the other two scenarios, the ecological protection scenario not only protects the ecological environment but also ensures production, which is in line with the national ecological protection policy and has greater guiding significance for future land-use planning and is worthy of further promotion in the study area.