Density-dependent decline of breeding success in an introduced, increasing mute swan Cygus olor population

An increasing population of the mute swan Cygnus olor , was studied from its very establishment in 1976 until 1998. As the number of pairs increased, there was a decline in all production parameters, including the average number of clutches per pair, the average number of broods per clutch, and the average number of fledged young per brood. In a multiple regression analysis covering the whole breeding season, the number of pairs and the average number of clutches per pair explained 71% of the variation in the average number of fledglings per pair. During the brood season, the average number of fledglings per brood was an additionally important parameter in explaining fledgling production. Habitat quality seemed to affect breeding: in places occupied earlier more cygnets fledged from a clutch than in habitats inhabited later. The decreased production of young very likely reflects density-dependent effects on reproduction. This density dependence seems to operate on the breeding grounds, since winter harshness did not affect breeding success. Density-dependent processes started acting already when pairs were beginning to nest, and continued during the brood period. Density dependence has apparently not been detected at the pair stage in earlier studies of bird populations.