唐山市经济与环境发展的适应性评价

经济与环境关系的研究日益受到重视，因此，探究经济系统是否适应环境系统非常必要.适应性研究强调人类系统对气候和环境变化的反应和调整，而经济行为是人类主动适应环境系统的集中表现，体现了人地系统的相互作用关系.本文选择典型资源型城市——唐山市，研究了其1992—2011年间经济发展与环境变化的适应性及表现.结果表明： 研究期间，唐山市经济-环境系统的适应力曲线总体呈波动上升趋势，即系统适应能力不断增强，表明唐山在进行经济生产的同时，加强了对环境质量的重视，经济发展与生态环境的关系逐步协调.应用Eviews软件对适应性曲线进行滤波分析，发现经济-环境系统的潜在协调指数不断提升，但20年适应力的缺口总和为负数，暗示高经济增长与高能源消耗、高污染排放的根本矛盾仍然存在.进行适应性研究有利于适应者更好地主动适应环境变化，也对丰富经济与环境的协调和可持续研究具有重要意义.

Adaptability assessment of economic and environmental development of Tangshan,Hebei, China.

It is vital to explore whether the economic system adapts to the environmental system as the relationship between economy and environment becomes a gradually concerned problem. Tang shan, a typical resource based city, was chosen to study the adaptabilities and performances of economic developments in response to environmental changes from 1992 to 2011. It was found that the economic environmental adaptation curve of Tangshan City had an overall fluctuating and increasing tendency. The systematic adaptability kept advancing, reflecting Tangshan paid much attention to environmental development in addition to economic performances, and the two aspects became more and more coordinated. Filtering analysis of the adaptive curve with Eviews software revealed that the potential systematic coordinating index was rising continuously, however, the sum of resilience gap for 20 years was still negative, which implied that fundamental contradictions between high economic development and high energy consumption and high pollutant emission still existed. Carrying out adaptive researches not only helps people to adapt to climate changes better, but also has significances for economic and environmental coordination and sustainability research.