基于生命周期的乡村景观格局演变的预测方法——以湖南省金井镇为例

以洞庭湖区金井镇为案例,运用生命周期理论分析了乡村景观格局演变过程，模拟了乡村景观格局演变周期曲线，预测出乡村景观格局演变周期，并与CA-Markov模型相耦合，建立了一套符合乡村景观格局演变规律的预测模拟方法. 预测结果表明： 2020年金井镇乡村景观格局中聚落景观和水田景观变化最大，聚落景观将增加至1194.01 hm²，水田景观将减少至3090.24 hm²，模型预测结果的数量精度和空间精度分别达到99.3%和96.4%，明显优于单一的CA-Markov模型.本文提出的乡村景观格局演变周期的预测方法可以为未来乡村景观规划提供参考.

Prediction method of rural landscape pattern evolution based on life cycle: A case study of Jinjing Town,Hunan Province,China.

Taking Jinjing Town in Dongting Lake area as a case, this paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model was built based on the rule of rural landscape change. The results showed that rural settlement and paddy landscapes of Jinjing Town would change most in 2020, with the rural settlement landscape increased to 1194.01 hm² and paddy landscape greatly reduced to 3090.24 hm². The quantitative and spatial prediction accuracies of the model were up to 99.3% and 96.4%, respectively, being more explicit than single CA-Markov model. The prediction model of rural landscape patterns change proposed in this paper would be helpful for rural landscape planning in future.