基于赤水河流域生态补偿的政府和社会资本合作项目风险识别与分担

赤水河流域为生态脆弱区域，现行的流域生态补偿机制存在补偿资金来源单一、总量不足且持续性较差、补偿方式较为单一等问题。将政府和社会资本合作（Public-Private Partnership，PPP）模式应用于建立赤水河流域生态补偿机制，有助于拓宽补偿资金来源、增加资金总量、丰富补偿方式，推动各利益相关方收益共享、风险共担。与传统PPP项目相比，基于流域生态补偿的PPP项目具有更为复杂的风险结构，风险因素的正确识别和合理分担是成功运用PPP模式完善赤水河流域生态补偿机制的关键。识别基于赤水河流域生态补偿的PPP项目运作关键环节，甄别各环节面临的主要风险因素；基于云理论建立风险分担模型；将有关风险在政府和社会资本间进行分担。研究结果表明：（1）基于赤水河流域生态补偿的PPP项目运作过程共包括项目准备、项目实施和项目合同终结等三个阶段、共11个关键环节，各环节共面临26个主要风险因素。（2）分析了有关风险因素可能对赤水河流域生态补偿机制或PPP项目产生的不利影响，并指出了风险引致方。（3）在项目准备阶段，政府拥有绝对的资源优势，以政府为主承担主要风险；在项目实施阶段，项目风险总体上由政府承担为主向社会资本承担为主转移，80%的风险主要由社会资本承担；特许经营期满后，社会资本将项目的经营权（或所有权与经营权同时）向政府移交，在项目合同终结阶段，有关风险再次以政府承担为主。

Risk identification and allocation of the Public-Private Partnership project based on ecological compensation in Chishui Watershed

The Chishui Watershed is an ecological fragile region. The current ecological compensation mechanism in the Chishui Watershed has problems such as single source of compensation funds, insufficient total amount, poor sustainability, and relatively simple compensation mode. For ecological compensation mechanism in the Chishui Watershed, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model can potentially broaden the sources of supplementary funding, increase total funding, diversify modes of compensation, and facilitate sharing of profit and allocation of risks between stakeholders. Compared to traditional PPP projects, PPP projects based on watershed ecological compensation involve a more complex risk structure. In order to improve the ecological compensation mechanism of the Chishui Watershed by using the PPP model, correct risk identification and effective risk-allocation are crucial. The key links of PPP project based on ecological compensation in Chishui Watershed are identified, and the main risk factors of each key link are identified. A risk allocation model was established through the cloud theory, showing the risk allocation situation between the public and private partners. The results show that:(1) the process of PPP project based on ecological compensation in Chishui Watershed includes three stages:project preparation, project implementation and project contract termination. 11 key links are identified. There are 26 main risk factors in these key links. (2) The adverse impacts of risk factors on the watershed ecological compensation mechanism or PPP project in the Chishui Watershed are analyzed, along with their sources. (3) The risk allocation proportion between the public and private partners changes at different stages of PPP project. Specifically, during the project preparation stage, the public partner bears the majority of risk factors because of absolute resource advantages; during the project implementation stage, the private partner bears 80% risk factors; during the contract termination stage, private partner transfer the project''s management right (or ownership and management rights) to the public partner, so the risk factors are mainly borne by public partner again.