基于MaxEnt模型的贵州省楠木潜在适生区预测

为揭示楠木(Phoebe zhennan)在贵州省潜在分布特征及其对环境因子的响应模式，该研究基于楠木在贵州省的地理分布点，运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)与地理信息系统(ArcGIS)方法，结合气候、土壤及地形等30个环境因子，预测楠木在贵州省的潜在适生区，并分析了影响楠木生长的主要环境因子。结果表明：(1) MaxEnt模型AUC平均值为0.843,对贵州省楠木地理分布预测结果良好；楠木潜在适生区呈现以贵州省东北为重点区，从北到南、由东向西适生等级依次降低的趋势，高适生区主要在黔东北铜仁市、黔北遵义市中东部。(2)楠木在贵州省的潜在分布面积为80 013.47 km²,占全省总面积的45.4%,其中高适生区面积占全省总面积的17.4%。(3)等温性(Bio3)、最暖季度降水量(Bio18)、最湿月降水量(Bio13)、最干月降水量(Bio14)、最冷月最低温(Bio6)和温度季节性变动系数(Bio4)等是影响楠木在贵州省潜在分布的重要环境因子。该研究结果为贵州省楠木资源保护区划、种苗扩繁、造林推广与开发利用提供了科学依据。

Prediction of potential suitable area of Phoebe zhennan in Guizhou Province based on MaxEnt model

To reveal the potential distribution characteristics of Phoebe zhennan in Guizhou Province and its response mode to environmental factors. Based on the geographical distribution points of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province, this study used MaxEnt and ArcGIS methods combining with 30 environmental factors such as climate, soil and topography to predict the potential habitat of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province and analyze the main environmental factors affecting the growth of P. zhennan. The results were as follows:(1)The AUC of MaxEnt model had an average value of 0.843, which indicated that it could well predict the geographical distribution of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province. The northeast of Guizhou Province was the key area of it''s potential habitat, with a decreasing trend from north to south and from east to west. The high suitable areas were mainly located in Tongren City, northeastern Guizhou Province and mid-eastern Zunyi City, northern Guizhou Province. The middle suitable and low suitable areas were concentrated in northern Tongren City, north-central Miao and Dong autonomous prefecture in southeastern Guizhou Province, Guiyang, northeastern Bijie City and northeastern Buyi and Miao autonomous prefecture in southern Guizhou Province. Other areas were not suitable for P. zhennan to grow.(2)The potential distribution area of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province was 80 013.47 km², which accounted for 45.4% of the whole province''s land area. The high suitable area covered 30 565.66 km², and the share of high suitable area was 17.4%.(3)Environmental factors including isothermality(Bio3), precipitation of the warmest quarte(Bio18), precipitation of the wettest month(Bio13), precipitation of the driest month(Bio14), min temperature of the coldest month(Bio6)and temperature seasonality(Bio4)were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province. In conclusion, the results elucidate that the geographical distribution of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province and the main environmental factors affecting its distribution are of great significance. The results of this study will provide a scientific basis for seedling expansion, afforestation promotion, development and utilization of P. zhennan in Guizhou Province.