Distribution dynamics of a great bustard metapopulation throughout a decade: influence of conspecific attraction and recruitment

Dispersing individuals can use conspecifics as indicators of habitat quality and aggregate at traditionally occupied sites, leaving other favourable patches unoccupied. Here we test the predictions of the conspecific-based habitat selection hypothesis on a Spanish great bustard (Otis tarda) metapopulation, currently fragmented due to recent human-induced habitat changes. The number of birds had increased by 23% between 1988 and 1998, but not consistently among leks. Leks that were large in 1988 increased, while those that were small decreased, which suggests that dispersing individuals used the numbers of conspecifics as cues for breeding-site selection. Moreover, leks with high productivity increased, while those with low productivity decreased. Finally, lek distribution was markedly stable throughout the decade, with no establishment of new leks, and suitable habitat patches remained unoccupied, as predicted by the conspecific attraction hypothesis. These results were corroborated by a simulation model which incorporated natal dispersal rates between leks as obtained through radio-tracking of 15 birds that survived throughout their 4-year dispersal period. In conclusion, in spite of the apparent increase in total numbers throughout the decade, both conspecific attraction and local differences in reproductive success contributed to a more aggregated distribution, increasing the species' vulnerability to local catastrophes, and the risks of reduced genetic diversity and extinction of small leks.