Factors affecting plasma progesterone concentration and the retrospective determination of time of ovulation in cyclic mares

Factors influencing plasma progesterone concentration were investigated in seven mares. Two-phase logistic curves were fitted (r=0.98) to plasma progesterone concentrations of blood samples collected once daily. In addition to the effect of time (P<0.001), there were differences (P<0.01) among mares in the peak height of the progesterone plateau and in the (area under the curve) AUC. Plasma progesterone concentrations were higher (P<0.001) after a multiple versus single ovulation. There was an effect of season (P<0.001), but no significant effect of luteal morphology. The retrospective determination of time of ovulation was carried out using a linear model on the seven mares and 25 additional mares. Linear regression on the measured values or on the ratio to the average concentration from D5 to D10, was calculated with the day of cycle between D0 and D4. The ovulation date was then calculated using both of these equations, whether blood sampling was performed twice or thrice weekly on 25 postpartum mares. The accuracy to predict day of ovulation (+/- 1 day) ranged from 88 to 97%. In conclusion, the retrospective estimation of time of ovulation in mares was possible, although the technique had some limitations.