Consequences of a changing environment on the breeding phenology and reproductive success components in a long-distance migratory bird

Migratory birds have a narrow time window to breed, especially in the Arctic, where early nesting typically yields the highest reproductive success. We assessed temporal changes (1991–2015) in reproductive success components in relation to timing of breeding in greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica). This species breeds in the Canadian Arctic, a region that has experienced a strong warming trend. We tested the effect of laying or hatching date, year and their interaction on six reproductive components: Total clutch laid, nesting success, egg survival, hatching success, prefledging, and postfledging survival. Over 25 years, mean laying date changed little, even though it advanced 1.8 days in early breeders and was delayed 3 days in late breeders. Likewise, the number of eggs in nests initiated early in the season decreased by 0.6 egg, whereas in late nests it increased by 0.3 egg. Success of nests initiated early and late in the season was lower than nests initiated near the population mean, and consistently increased over time. The proportion of eggs surviving to partial predation and postfledging survival decreased with laying date but the pattern did not change over time. In contrast, prefledging survival was not affected by laying date initially but declined in nests initiated late in the season toward the end of the study. Overall, nests initiated close to the population mean showed little temporal change for most components of reproductive success and seem to be less affected by environmental change than nests initiated early and late in the season.