Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.     

Profiling a besieged flora: endemic and threatened plants of the Cape Peninsula, South Africa

The Cape Peninsula (area: 471 km²), situated at the south-western extremity of the Cape Floristic Region, has exceptionally high plant species richness (2285 species and infraspecific taxa) and numbers of endemic (90; 88 species and two infraspecific) and threatened (141; 138 species and three infraspecific) taxa (termed species from here on). This biodiversity is threatened by urban development and the spread of invasive alien plants. Peninsula endemics are concentrated in a few, predominantly species-rich families and these correspond well with endemic-rich families in other areas of the Cape Floristic Region. A high level of similarity exists between families with threatened and families with endemic species. A frequency analysis of the biological traits of both endemic and threatened species shows that low growing, ant-dispersed shrubs are over-represented in both groups. Endemics are most likely to be non-sprouters, but threatened plants do not have a specific post-fire regeneration strategy. Threatened species have higher frequencies of geophytes, sprouters and wind-dispersed species compared to endemic species. Numbers of endemic and threatened species are not randomly distributed with regard to occurrence in vegetation types and patterns are similar for both groups. The habitat and biological profiles of both endemic and threatened species suggest that they are highly vulnerable to extinction as a result of increasing rates of alien plant infestation, urbanization and inappropriate fire regimes.     

An assessment of red list data for the Pezizomycotina (Ascomycota): Umbria (Italy) as a test case

Abstract

A Red List of all 108 Pezizomycotina (Ascomycota) species recorded in Umbria Region (central Italy) is provided. According to the IUCN categories and criteria, 60.18% of the assessed species are classified as threatened, whereas 12.96% are Near Threatened (NT), 1.86% are Least Concerned (LC) and a noteworthy amount of 25% are Data Deficient (DD). As a consequence of the downlisting applied to the majority of the assessed taxa, according to the guidelines for application of IUCN red list criteria at Regional level, only 1.54% of the threatened species is Critically Endangered (CR), while 46.15% are Endangered (EN) and 52.31% are Vulnerable (VU). Given that the present work represents the first complete regional red list of Pezizomycotina in Italy, and that a national, as well as a European red list do not exist to date, it could be considered as a case study for other Italian Regions as well as for other European countries, aiming at the compilation of a national and European red list of this fungal group mostly overlooked in conservation strategies.     

Parallels,differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely infectious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which is highly challenging to control and can give rise to national animal health crises, especially if there is a lack of pre-existing immunity due to the emergence of new strains or following incursions into disease-free regions. The 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK was on a scale that initially overwhelmed the national veterinary services and was eventually controlled by livestock lockdown and slaughter on an unprecedented scale. In 2020, the rapid emergence of COVID-19 has led to a human pandemic unparalleled in living memory. The enormous logistics of multi-agency control efforts for COVID-19 are reminiscent of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, as are the use of movement restrictions, not normally a feature of human disease control. The UK experience is internationally relevant as few countries have experienced national epidemic crises for both diseases. In this review, we reflect on the experiences and lessons learnt from UK and international responses to FMD and COVID-19 with respect to their management, including the challenge of preclinical viral transmission, threat awareness, early detection, different interpretations of scientific information, lockdown, biosecurity behaviour change, shortage of testing capacity and the choices for eradication versus living with infection. A major lesson is that the similarity of issues and critical resources needed to manage large-scale outbreaks demonstrates that there is benefit to a ‘One Health’ approach to preparedness, with potential for greater cooperation in planning and the consideration of shared critical resources.     

An estimate of potential threats levels to soil biodiversity in EU

Life within the soil is vital for maintaining life on Earth due to the numerous ecosystem services that it provides. However, there is evidence that pressures on the soil biota are increasing which may undermine some of these ecosystem services. Current levels of belowground biodiversity are relatively poorly known, and so no benchmark exists by which to measure possible future losses of biodiversity. Furthermore, the relative risk that each type of anthropogenic pressures places on the soil biota remains unclear. Potential threats to soil biodiversity were calculated through the use of a composite score produced from data collected from 20 international experts using the budget allocation methodology. This allowed relative weightings to be given to each of the identified pressures for which data were available in the European Soil Data Centre (ESDC). A total of seven different indicators were used for calculating the composite scores. These data were applied through a model using ArcGIS to produce a spatial analysis of composite pressures on soil biodiversity at the European scale. The model highlights the variation in the composite result of the potential threats to soil biodiversity. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the intensity of land exploitation, both in terms of agriculture and use intensity, as well as in terms of land‐use dynamics, were the main factors applying pressure on soil biodiversity. It is important to note that the model should not be viewed as an estimate of the current level of soil biodiversity in Europe, but as an estimate of pressures that are currently being exerted. The results obtained should be seen as a starting point for further investigation on this relatively unknown issue and demonstrate the utility of this type of model which may be applied to other regions and scales.     

THE YANGTZE RIVER-FLOODPLAIN ECOSYSTEM: MULTIPLE THREATS AND HOLISTIC CONSERVATION北大核心CSCD

The Yangtze (Changjiang) river-floodplain is one of the most important ecosystems in China and the world, but is seriously threatened by multiple stresses. Thus, it is crucial and urgent to rehabilitate and conserve the river-floodplain. This paper reviews ecological studies conducted on the Yangtze river-floodplain, and presents suggestions for conservation and rehabilitation. First, basic concepts and research advances of riverscape and hydrological connectivity are introduced. Second, the history and current status of the Yangtze River system are summarized. Before 23 Ma, the Yangtze River cut through the Three Gorges, forming the river much like the modern one. Numerous rivers, streams, lakes (the total area 15770 km2 at present) and wetlands are distributed in the mid-lower Yangtze river-flood-plain. Such a river-lake complex ecosystem holds a unique and diverse biota, and is the most important fishery area of China. Third, main threats to the Yangtze river-floodplain ecosystem are identified, i.e., a) habitat loss, including river channelization, sharp shrinkage of lake area (ca. 10000 km2 since the 1950s), degradation of lakeshore zones and sand over-mining; b) alternations of hydrological regimes, including construction of ca. 47000 reservoirs and disconnection of most lakes from the mainstem; c) water pollution, including eutrophication, heavy metals, organic pollutants and microplastic; d) overexploitation of biological resources, including overfishing and intensive pen culture. Fourth, effects of river-lake disconnection on lake ecosystems are summarized. It was found that a) disconnection is one of the main causes of lake eutrophication; b) species diversity, biomass, production of macrophytes and macrobenthos reach maxima at some levels of intermediate river connectivity; c) disconnection greatly reduces fish species richness of each habitat guild, and natural fish larvae is severely depleted; d) disconnection simplifies macroinvertebrate food web structure, and trophic basis is more heavily relied on detritus in disconnected lakes. Last, conservation strategies are proposed. Since the Yangtze river-floodplain is a huge integrated system, the biodiversity conservation must be conducted on the whole basin scale. By establishing species-area models of fishes, the minimum protected area of Yangtze-connected lakes is estimated to be ca. 14400 km2. It means that at least 8900 km2 of disconnected lakes should be reconnected with the Yangtze mainstem, and ecohydrological operation of dams and sluices is the feasible approach. Based upon our studies on environmental flow requirements, the following measures are suggested: a) lower water levels during spring to improve germination of macrophytes, and control rising rates of water levels during spring-summer to ensure development of macrophytes; b) open sluice gates to restore migration routes for juveniles migrating into lakes during April-September, and for adults migrating back to the Yangtze mainstem during November-December. © 2019, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.     

亚洲虎种群恢复的机遇与挑战

虎(Panthera tigris)作为顶级捕食者, 对维持森林生态系统服务和结构完整性有着重要作用, 是研究和保护工作的旗舰物种。历史上, 虎曾广泛分布于亚洲大部分地区, 如今仅分布于南亚、东南亚和东北亚的破碎化栖息地, 各区域种群处于濒危或极度濒危状态。准确了解野生虎的种群状态和生态需求信息对于科学开展保护和恢复工作至关重要。本文通过综述近几十年的研究文献, 总结了野生虎种群现状和主要威胁因素, 评价了已有研究的重点与不足, 为未来亚洲虎种群的研究和保护提出了建议。目前与虎相关的研究主要集中在分布范围最广的孟加拉虎(P. t. tigris)和东北虎(P. t. altaica) 2个亚种, 而最急需关注的其他亚种仍研究不足。经过近十几年的努力和保护投入, 目前野生虎种群数量已从2010年的大约3,200只恢复到现在约4,500只, 但在越南、柬埔寨和老挝3个国家已经灭绝。虎面临的主要威胁包括持续的栖息地破坏和隔离、猎物缺乏、近交衰退、人虎冲突、贸易与盗猎和疾病威胁等。未来的研究和保护工作需要加强种群和栖息地连通性恢复、个体重引入、疾病管控以及加强跨境合作和反盗猎等。     

基于土地利用及植被覆盖变化的黄河源区生境质量时空变化特征

位于青藏高原腹地的黄河源地区生态环境脆弱,面临生物多样性锐减、生态系统退化等问题,黄河源区生态系统保护及其高质量发展已成为国家的重点战略之一。土地利用与植被覆盖是影响生境质量的重要因素,定量化土地利用方式、强度及格局和植被覆盖格局对生态质量影响的研究越来越受到关注,但其对黄河源区生态质量的耦合效应尚不明确。基于2000年和2015年黄河源区土地利用类型及生长季归一化植被指数（NDVI）,采用InVEST模型探究了不同时期黄河源区生境质量时空变化,并采用地理加权回归（GWR）模型揭示了生境质量对土地利用和植被覆盖变化的空间响应特征。结果表明,2000年与2015年土地利用类型变化主要为未利用土地向草地的转移。植被覆盖变化方面,源区生长季NDVI整体上升。从生境质量的空间分布来看,黄河源区生境质量总体呈现南高北低的空间格局,高值分布在南部及中部地区,低值分布在北部布青山、东北部高海拔区及黄河乡的黄河沿岸。相较于2000年,2015年黄河源区生境质量平均提高11.47%。草地面积和NDVI与生境质量均呈显著正相关关系,其中NDVI是提高黄河源区生境质量的重要驱动因子。研究结果突出了NDVI对提高黄河源区生境质量的主导作用,可为未来源区生态保护提供借鉴。     

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one‐sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost‐effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost‐effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision‐making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.