A comparison of vector population indices for forecasting barley yellow dwarf virus in autumn sown cereal crops

Two approaches based on the concept of a vector population index are considered as possible deterministic elements for an empirical forecast of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) in autumn sown cereals. The first, an aerial vector index, is a further elaboration of the infectivity index proposed by Plumb, Lennon & Gutteridge (1981), which assumes that virus damage is a function of the number of infective migrant alatae of the two main aphid vectors, Rhopalosiphum padi L. and Sitobion avenae F., integrated over time from crop planting or emergence. The new formulation, however, excludes holocyclic alate morphs (i.e. males and gynoparae) of the former species, which, although generally abundant in autumn, are nevertheless perceived as relatively unimportant virus vectors since they colonise only the alternative woody host, Prunus padus (the bird-cherry tree). The second approach, a crop vector index, is a more fundamental departure which argues that field populations of viruliferous aphids, both alatae and apterae, which have already colonised cereals, may be a better criterion of potential virus spread than the density of aerial migrant vectors. This index retains a similar integral form, but evaluates crop exposure to BYDV as accumulated infectious aphid-days. A method is described whereby this function can be derived from irregular or infrequent aphid samples in the crop. Both methods, unlike Plumb's (1976) original concept, produced indices which were significantly related to subsequent virus infection and yield loss in winter barley at Long Ashton (S.W. England, UK), 1978–1986. The best models were obtained with the crop vector index, fitted to observed virus infection by generalised linear regression using a complementary log-log link function, or to observed yield loss by simple linear regression using a log transformation of yield (r = 0.84 in each case; compared with r-values > 0.65 for the aerial vector index, and > 0.35 for Plumb's (1976) index). However, the residual errors and hence confidence limits of these fitted regressions were too large for predicting damage that was significantly less than a reasonable economic damage threshold for BYDV control. Analyses of the separate components of each index showed a good general relationship between aphid infectivity and the severity of crop infection, confirming the epidemiological importance of this factor. The functional expressions of aphid density, however, were not significant. This evident weakness in the models, and alternative approaches to BYDV forecasting are discussed.     

Xinnaokang improves cecal microbiota and lipid metabolism to target atherosclerosis

This study aims to explore the potential mechanisms of Xinnaokang in atherosclerosis treatment. Firstly, the active components of Xinnaokang were analysed by HPLC, which contains ginsenoside Rg1, puerarin, tanshinone, notoginsenoside R1, ammonium glycyrrhizate and glycyrrhizin. Network pharmacology analysis showed there were 145 common targets of Xinnaokang, including the chemical stress, lipid metabolite, lipopolysaccharide, molecules of bacterial origin, nuclear receptor and fluid shear stress pathways. Then, the animal experiment showed that Xinnaokang reduced the body weight and blood lipid levels of atherosclerotic mice. Vascular plaque formation was increased in atherosclerotic mice, which was markedly reversed by Xinnaokang. In addition, Xinnaokang reduced CAV-1 expression and increased ABCA1, SREBP-1 and LXR expressions in the vasculature. Xinnaokang promoted SREBP-2 and LDLR expressions in the liver but decreased IDOL and PCSK9 expressions, indicating that Xinnaokang regulated lipid transport-related protein expression. Cecal microbiota diversity was reduced in atherosclerotic mice but increased after Xinnaokang treatment. Xinnaokang treatment also improved gut microbiota communities by enriching Actinobacteria, Bifidobacteriales and Bifidobacteriaceae abundances. Metabolic profile showed that Xinnaokang significantly reduced homogentisate, phenylacetylglycine, alanine and methionine expressions in the liver of atherosclerotic mice. Xinnaokang effectively alleviated atherosclerosis, and this effect might be linked with the altered features of the liver metabolite profiles and cecal microbiota.     

Values,Errors, and Precautions

In the environmental health literature, errors in interpreting studies or data are not infrequent. Many are of the Type II variety. Common solecisms of this type are: treating the criterion of p < 0.05 as a sacrament; demanding complete confounder control; arguing for the existence of phantom confounders; arguing that the effect size is trivial; building nonveridical models; arguing for no effect from inadequate sample size; demanding causal proof; arguing that causality is reversed; conducting a ballot of published studies. These are examined in this paper.     

Studies on the epidemiology of Strongylus vulgaris infection of the horse.

Observations are reported on the size and age structure of Stronglyus vulgaris populations recovered from the anterior mesenteric artery and its main branches of horses slaughtered at regular intervals throughout a year. Marked seasonal variations were found in the mean monthly numbers of worms present. During spring/early summer the numbers were relatively low and a large proportion of the arteries had no worms in them at all. Thereafter, the arterial worm burdens quite rapidly increased and the highest levels were reached during the winter months. During summer, small, newly-arrived larvae were quite abundant but by the end of the year well-developed (fifth-stage and late fourth-stage) worms predominated. These observations support the view that S. vulgaris is in Britain an annual species completing its development mainly during the winter months of the year.     

Phylogeny and molecular epidemiology of Sporothrix schenckii in Japan

Mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA) diversity was investigated in 257 clinical isolants of Sporothrix schenckii obtained from 4 districts in Japan. S. schenckii was classified into 10 types based on Hae III restriction profiles. Phylogeny of types constructed by the method of Fitch and Margoliash [1] on the estimated sequence divergence within mtDNA using the methods of Nei and Li [2], showed that S. schenckii are grouped into 2 clusters, one group consisting of types 1, 2 and 3, and the other group consisting of the other seven types. In addition, types 1, 2, and 5 were correlated with their geographic origin, whereas type 4 was present throughout Japan.     

Spatial pattern analysis of the incidence of aster yellows disease in lettuce

The degree of aggregation of lettuce plants infected by aster yellows phytoplasma (AYP) was investigated in 12 fields from three experiments. Position of diseased and healthy plants was mapped in a 6–9×12-m section of each field; for most analyses, fields were divided into 10-plant quadrats. Mean disease incidence (p) ranged from 0.01 to 0.30. The frequency of diseased plants was described by the beta-binomial distribution, with an index of aggregation (θ) ranging from 0 to 0.17, positively correlated withp, and generally increasing over time within a field. Distance-class analysis revealed a core-cluster size of only a few plants. However, spatial autocorrelations ofp between quadrats were not significant, indicating that the scale of spatial pattern was small, generally less than 10 plants. An overall measure of aggregation was given by the slope parameter of the binary form of the power law, in which the log of the calculated variance is regressed on the log of the theoretical variance for a binomial distribution. The slope was 1.18 and significantly different from 1. Results for this “simple-interest” disease are interpreted in relation to the persistent transmission of AYP by its aster leafhopper vector.     

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma in Malaysia – Pooled data from upper gastrointestinal centers in a multiethnic Asian population

BackgroundEsophageal cancer is the sixth leading cause of cancer death worldwide with considerable geographical histological variation There is a paucity of data in esophageal cancer in demographics, histology, and survival among the multi-ethnic Malaysian population. This paper is a review of esophageal cancer epidemiology and survival among esophageal cancer patients from data collected by the Malaysian Upper Gastrointestinal Surgical Society.MethodsThis is a multicenter retrospective observational study of esophageal cancer patients from six upper gastrointestinal surgical centers in Malaysia between 2005 and 2019. Patient characteristics, histological type and stage were compared and survival analyzed.ResultsThere were 820 patients with esophageal cancer included, where 442 (53.9 %) cases had squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and 378 (46.1 %) had adenocarcinomas (AC). Malays were the predominant ethnicity with AC (66.7 %) while Indians were the ethnic majority (74.6 %) with SCC. Majority of patients (56.8 %) presented as stage IV disease. Overall, the 1-, 3-, and 5-years’ survival were 35.8 %, 13.8 % and 11.0 %, respectively. Surgical resection with curative intent yielded the best 5-year survival (29.4 %). Intervention in stage IV AC yielded superior survival when compared to SCC (median survival, 7.9 months vs 4.8 months; p, 0.018) Our series demonstrated an increase in AC to SCC over the last 15 years.ConclusionsThere was an ethnic preponderance seen between different histology in this region, not previously discussed. An increase in AC was observed over the last 15 years. Late diagnosis seen in most patients imparts poor prognosis as curative surgery affords the best outcome.