Estimating the proportion cured of cancer: Some practical advice for users

BackgroundCure models can provide improved possibilities for inference if used appropriately, but there is potential for misleading results if care is not taken. In this study, we compared five commonly used approaches for modelling cure in a relative survival framework and provide some practical advice on the use of these approaches.Patients and methodsData for colon, female breast, and ovarian cancers were used to illustrate these approaches. The proportion cured was estimated for each of these three cancers within each of three age groups. We then graphically assessed the assumption of cure and the model fit, by comparing the predicted relative survival from the cure models to empirical life table estimates.ResultsWhere both cure and distributional assumptions are appropriate (e.g., for colon or ovarian cancer patients aged <75 years), all five approaches led to similar estimates of the proportion cured. The estimates varied slightly when cure was a reasonable assumption but the distributional assumption was not (e.g., for colon cancer patients ≥75 years). Greater variability in the estimates was observed when the cure assumption was not supported by the data (breast cancer).ConclusionsIf the data suggest cure is not a reasonable assumption then we advise against fitting cure models. In the scenarios where cure was reasonable, we found that flexible parametric cure models performed at least as well, or better, than the other modelling approaches. We recommend that, regardless of the model used, the underlying assumptions for cure and model fit should always be graphically assessed.     

A single, low, oral dose of a 5-carbon-linked trioxane dimer orthoester plus mefloquine cures malaria-infected mice

Four 5-carbon-linked trioxane dimer orthoesters (6a-6d) have been prepared in 4 or 5 chemical steps from the natural trioxane artemisinin (1). When administered orally to malaria-infected mice using a single dose of only 6 mg/kg body weight along with 18 mg/kg of mefloquine hydrochloride, trioxane dimer orthoester sulfone 6d completely and safely cured the mice; after 30 days, the cured mice showed no detectable parasitemia, gained at least as much weight as the control mice (no infection), and behaved normally.     

新生儿呼吸机相关性肺炎临床分析与防治对策

目的探讨新生儿呼吸机相关性肺炎的临床特点以及防治措施。方法59例患儿使用呼吸机机械通气进行治疗,分析与呼吸机相关性肺炎发生率情况、病原学检查结果、药敏试验结果以及转归情况。结果与呼吸机相关性肺炎者有30例,发生率为50．85％。从下呼吸道分泌物培养或管端培养出细菌29例。分析了病原菌种类与所占的比例,并给出了药敏试验结果。两组患儿治愈率相比具有统计学差异。结论采取综合的防治措施是降低呼吸机相关性肺炎发生的最佳方法。     

复发性念珠菌性阴道炎生态治疗的微生态研究

目的探讨复发性或顽固性阴道炎的生态治疗方法,保护阴道的微生态平衡,使治疗收到事半功倍的效果.方法门诊外阴阴道念珠菌病的患者共124例,69例久治不愈或反复发作者为观察组,55例初染者为对照组.观察组药物包括氟康唑或制霉菌素片,消炎粉(自制),酮康唑乳膏,已烯雌酚,乳糖和洁菌宁等;对照组以氟康唑或制霉菌素片等常规治疗.结果观察组的疗效显著高于对照组(P＜0.01).结论该文所探索的"生态治疗"方案临床效果显著,尤其根据患者的不同情况和菌谱特征调整用药方案和配药比例,使治疗个体化,如此使其得到彻底治愈.     

Population-level cure of colorectal cancer in Malta: An analysis of patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2004

AimThe aim of this study was to estimate the population-level ‘cure’ of Maltese colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2004, and to estimate the median survival time for the ‘uncured’ patients.Methods and study populationAnalysis was conducted on 1470 cases registered by the Malta National Cancer Register between 1995 and 2004 and followed up to end of 2010. The mean age of the patients was 66.4 (95%CI 65.8–67.1), and the number of men and women were equal. Background mortality for 1995–2010 was extracted from publicly available life tables. A mixture model with Weibull survival distribution and identity link was used to model ‘cure’.ResultsThe overall ‘cured’ proportion for the patients diagnosed in 1995–1999 was 45.3% (95%CI 40.2–50.5) while the ‘cured’ proportion for the patients diagnosed in 2000–2004 was 52.3% (95%CI 47.2–57.5). Median survival time for the ‘uncured’ patients increased in the second calendar period from 1.25 years (95%CI 1.04–1.45) to 1.42 years (95%CI 1.15–1.76).ConclusionIn Malta, as in the rest of Europe, improvements have been made in short- and long-term survival over the 15-year period under study. To continue this improvement, differences by age that still persist must be investigated and efforts focused to reduce any gaps between Malta and other European countries.     

In Search of the Holy Grail of Heliocobacter pylori Remedies

In this issue, Gisbert et al. (pp. 157–62) present the results of a noncomparative study evaluating a twice daily, 5‐day regimen of ranitidine bismuth citrate, amoxicillin, clarithromycin and metronidazole twice daily for Helicobacter pylori cure. This study is one of a few stuides that evaluate a 5‐day triple antimicrobial regimen in combination with a antisecretory agent. Although the study design precludes making any definite conclusion, it does encourage additional investigation of these types of regimens. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using regimens containing multiple agents should consider both standard‐of‐care comparator regimens and comparator regimens that will provide a better understanding of why regimens are more effective or better tolerated. The goal of treatment should be to maintain a lower bound 95% confidence interval (CI) of the point estimate of greater than 80% and a ‘delta’ (lower bound 95% CI of the difference in rates) of less than 10%. All RCTs should conduct susceptibility testing to evaluate the impact of resistance on efficacy and explain eradication failures. Finally, consideration should be given to the inclusion of patients with functional dyspepsia in H. pylori studies evaluating H. pylori cure since patients with peptic ulcer disease are becoming harder to find.     

设施蔬菜病虫绿色防治技术初探

详细论述了绿色防治技术的内涵,阐明了设施蔬菜病虫绿色防治的必要性和紧迫性,并在充分掌握设施蔬菜病虫发生规律的基础上,提出了一套包括选用抗病虫品种、O3棚室消毒、健身栽培、嫁接、生态调控、果实类蔬菜套袋、防虫网阻隔技术及科学限量使用化学农药等设施蔬菜病虫绿色防治关键技术,将对实现绿色食品蔬菜生产、保护菜田环境具有十分重要的指导作用。