Hormone Rhythms and Breast Cancer Chronoepidemiology: Salivary Progesterone Concentrations in Pre- and Post-Menarchal Girls and in Normal Premenopausal Women

Orcadian and circatrigintan time series of salivary progesterone levels in premenarchal and adolescent girls and healthy mature premenopausal women have been investigated as a possible determinant for breast cancer risk. Circadian variations in progesterone appear to be more random than systematic and estimates of total daily progesterone output are better represented by samples pooled from several 2-hr specimens. Different patterns of circatrigintan progesterone secretion in girls are recognised and relate to those experienced in infertile and fertile women, though their relation to chronological or menarchal age is as yet uncertain. These data suggest that the measurement of salivary progesterone at premenarche, adolescence and maturity is a feasible, though statistically difficult, study for prospective identification of individuals at risk for breast cancer.     

Hormone rhythms and breast cancer chronoepidemiology: salivary progesterone concentrations in pre- and post-menarchal girls and in normal premenopausal women

Orcadian and circatrigintan time series of salivary progesterone levels in premenarchal and adolescent girls and healthy mature premenopausal women have been investigated as a possible determinant for breast cancer risk. Circadian variations in progesterone appear to be more random than systematic and estimates of total daily progesterone output are better represented by samples pooled from several 2-hr specimens. Different patterns of circatrigintan progesterone secretion in girls are recognised and relate to those experienced in infertile and fertile women, though their relation to chronological or menarchal age is as yet uncertain. These data suggest that the measurement of salivary progesterone at premenarche, adolescence and maturity is a feasible, though statistically difficult, study for prospective identification of individuals at risk for breast cancer.     

Voice disorders assessed by (cross-) Sample Entropy of electroglottogram and microphone signals

The quantitative analysis of vocal disorders by nonlinear signal processing methods has been extensively used in the last two decades. In this work, two algorithms for nonlinear time-series analysis, Sample Entropy and cross-Sample Entropy, are used on electroglottogram (EGG) and microphone (MIC) signals recorded from 51 normal and 80 dysphonic subjects, to obtain summary measures of voice disorders through SampEn and cross-SampEn indices. Such parameters quantify, respectively, the degree of irregularity (in the sense of self-dissimilarity) within a time-series and of asynchrony (in the sense of cross-dissimilarity) between two distinct time-series. The aims of this work are: to determine if statistically significant differences in terms of signal irregularity quantified by SampEn occur between normal and pathological subjects, investigating whether or not such differences can be equally seen in EGG and MIC; to assess if cross-SampEn reveals different degrees of asynchrony between EGG and MIC signals in the two groups. Results show that SampEn in pathological subjects is higher than in normal subjects for both EGG and MIC time-series, with a statistically significant difference detectable from both signals (Pe < 10^?4 for EGG and Pe < 10^?7 for MIC). Cross-SampEn exhibits a statistically significant difference too, showing a higher degree of cross-dissimilarity between EGG and MIC time-series for pathological subjects (Pe < 10^?4). In conclusion, SampEn and cross-SampEn well quantify the increase of complexity of both EGG and MIC signals and the decrease of their cross-similarity in presence of vocal disorders. Thanks to the complementarity of nonlinear indicators to the traditionally considered linear ones, SampEn and cross-SampEn appear as suitable candidates to enter the pool of approaches to investigate speech pathologies and to obtain potentially new insights on their nature.     

Short-term observations of marine bacterial and viral communities: patterns,connections and resilience

Observation of short-term temporal variation in bacterial and viral communities is important for understanding patterns of aquatic microbial diversity. We collected surface seawater once daily for 38 consecutive days with seven more samples interspersed over 40 more days at one location ∼2 km from Santa Catalina Island, California. Bacterial communities were analyzed by automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA) and viral communities were analyzed by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) of the conserved T4-like myoviral gene encoding the major capsid protein (g23). Common bacterial and viral taxa were consistently dominant, and relatively few displayed dramatic increases/decreases or ‘boom/bust'' patterns that might be expected from dynamic predator-prey interactions. Association network analysis showed most significant covariations (associations) occurred among bacterial taxa or among viral taxa and there were several modular (highly-interconnected) associations (P⩽0.005). Associations observed between bacteria and viruses (P⩽0.005) occurred with a median time lag of 2 days. Regression of all pairwise Bray-Curtis similarities between samples indicated a rate of bacterial community change that slows from 2.1%–0.18% per day over a week to 2 months; the rate stays around 0.4% per day for viruses. Our interpretation is that, over the scale of days, individual bacterial and viral OTUs can be dynamic and patterned; resulting in statistical associations regarded as potential ecological interactions. However, over the scale of weeks, average bacterial community variation is slower, suggesting that there is strong community-level ecological resilience, that is, a tendency to converge towards a ‘mean'' microbial community set by longer-term controlling factors.     

Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large and cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed “regime shifts”), which can impact population productivity, resilience, and ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent and large fluctuations in their population dynamics driven by combinations of intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., ecosystem changes, species interactions). In recent years, many Pacific salmon have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding of the processes driving these changes remains elusive. Here, we unpacked the role of density dependence, ecosystem trends, and stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community of five anadromous Pacific salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Salmon, Dolly Varden, and Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across a rich 40-year time-series. We used a Bayesian multivariate state-space model to examine whether productivity shifts had similarly occurred across the community and explored marine or freshwater changes associated with those shifts. Overall, we identified three productivity regimes: an early regime (1976–1990), a compensatory regime (1991–2009), and a declining regime (since 2010) where large declines were observed for Steelhead, Dolly Varden, and Cutthroat Trout, intermediate declines in Coho and no change in Pink Salmon. These regime changes were associated with multiple cumulative effects across the salmon life cycle. For example, increased seal densities and ocean competition were associated with lower adult marine survival in Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over the past 40 years and was associated with (all else equal) ≥97% declines in freshwater productivity for Steelhead, Cutthroat, and Coho. For Steelhead, marine and freshwater dynamics played approximately equal roles in explaining trends in total productivity. Collectively, these changing environments limited juvenile production and lowered future adult returns. These results reveal how changes in freshwater and marine environments can jointly shape population dynamics among ecological communities, like Pacific salmon, with cascading consequences to their resilience.     

Extinction risk assessment of declining wild populations: The case of the southern Bluefin Tuna

We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size, if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing.     

Spatial and temporal extinction dynamics in a freshwater cetacean

Geographical range contraction is a fundamental ecological characteristic of species population decline, but relatively little investigation has been conducted into general trends in the dynamic properties of range collapse. The Yangtze River dolphin or baiji (Lipotes vexillifer), probably the first large mammal species to have become extinct in over 50 years, was believed to have experienced major range collapse during its decline through progressive large-scale range contraction and fragmentation. This range-collapse model is challenged by a new dataset of 406 baiji last-sighting records collected from across the baiji''s historical range during an interview survey of Yangtze fishing communities. Although baiji regional abundance may have varied across its range, analyses of the extensive new sighting series provide comprehensive evidence that baiji population decline was not associated with any major contraction in geographical range across the middle–lower Yangtze drainage, even in the decade immediately before probable global extinction of the species. Extinction risk in baiji was therefore seemingly not related to evidence of range collapse. Baiji apparently underwent large-scale periodic and seasonal movements across their range, and we propose that range contraction and fragmentation may not be general biogeographic characteristics for declining populations of mobile species in connected landscapes.