Influences of temporal independence of data on modelling species distributions

Modelling species distributions has been widely used to understand present and future potential distributions of species, and can provide adaptation and mitigation information as references for conservation and management under climate change. However, various methods of data splitting to develop and validate functions of the models do not get enough attention, which may mislead the interpretation of predicted results. We used the Taiwanese endemic birds to test the influences of temporal independence of datasets on model performance and prediction. Training and testing data were considered to be independent if they were collected during different survey periods (1993–2004 and 2009–2010). The results indicated no significant differences of six model performance measures (AUC, kappa, TSS, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) among the combinations of training and testing datasets. Both species- and grid cell-based assessments differed significantly between predictions by the annual and pooled training data. We also found an average of 85.8% similarity for species presences and absences in different survey periods. The remaining dissimilarity was mostly caused by species observed in the late survey period but not in the early one. The method of data splitting, yielding training and testing data, is critical for resulting model species distributions. Even if similar model performance exists, different methods can lead to different species distributional maps. More attention needs to be given to this issue, especially when amplifying these models to project species distributions in a changing world.     

Coherent modeling of longitudinal causal effects on binary outcomes

Analyses of biomedical studies often necessitate modeling longitudinal causal effects. The current focus on personalized medicine and effect heterogeneity makes this task even more challenging. Toward this end, structural nested mean models (SNMMs) are fundamental tools for studying heterogeneous treatment effects in longitudinal studies. However, when outcomes are binary, current methods for estimating multiplicative and additive SNMM parameters suffer from variation dependence between the causal parameters and the noncausal nuisance parameters. This leads to a series of difficulties in interpretation, estimation, and computation. These difficulties have hindered the uptake of SNMMs in biomedical practice, where binary outcomes are very common. We solve the variation dependence problem for the binary multiplicative SNMM via a reparameterization of the noncausal nuisance parameters. Our novel nuisance parameters are variation independent of the causal parameters, and hence allow for coherent modeling of heterogeneous effects from longitudinal studies with binary outcomes. Our parameterization also provides a key building block for flexible doubly robust estimation of the causal parameters. Along the way, we prove that an additive SNMM with binary outcomes does not admit a variation independent parameterization, thereby justifying the restriction to multiplicative SNMMs.     

The effect of positive assortative mating at one locus on a second linked locus

Summary A model for positive assortative mating based on genotype for one locus is employed to investigate the effect of this mating system on the genotypic structure of a second linked locus as well as on the joint genotypic structure of these two loci. It is shown that the second locus does not attain a precise positive assortative mating structure, but yet it shares a property that is characteristic of positive assortative mating, namely an increase in the frequency of homozygotes over that typically found in panmictic structures. Given any arbitrary genotypic structure for the parental population, the resulting offspring generation possesses a structure at the second locus that does not depend on the recombination frequency, while the joint structure of course does. In case assortative mating as well as linkage are not complete, there exists a unique joint equilibrium state for the two loci, which is characterized by complete stochastic independence between the two loci as well as by Hardy-Weinberg proportions at the second locus. For the second locus alone, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium is realized if and only if gametic linkage equilibrium and an additionally specified condition are realized.     

Sub-state nationalism in Spain: primers and triggers of identity politics in Catalonia and the Basque Country

This article builds on recent attempts to explain divergent uses of sub-state nationalism to push for policies of assimilation or multiculturalism and drive popular support for independence. It analyses the dynamics of discourses and policies in Spain before, during and after peak times of identity politics to provide a more nuanced understanding of the conditions leading to the activation of identity-driven policies. Substantive ethnographic evidence is presented to explain recent alterations to national discourses of identity, surprising reversals of immigration policies, and the modulation of Catalan and Basque independence movements. The main finding is that both identity discourses and resulting policies depend on the affinity for identity politics at the sub-state level, and this affinity is in large part primed by the popular perception of how secure sub-state national identity is against the ‘official’ state narrative.     

Long‐term persistence,density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

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Testing the relationship between morphological and molecular rates of change along phylogenies

Abstract.— Molecular evolution has been considered to be essentially a stochastic process, little influenced by the pace of phenotypic change. This assumption was challenged by a study that demonstrated an association between rates of morphological and molecular change estimated for "total-evidence" phylogenies, a finding that led some researchers to challenge molecular date estimates of major evolutionary radiations. Here we show that Omland's (1997) result is probably due to methodological bias, particularly phylogenetic nonindependence, rather than being indicative of an underlying evolutionary phenomenon. We apply three new methods specifically designed to overcome phylogenetic bias to 13 published phylogenetic datasets for vertebrate taxa, each of which includes both morphological characters and DNA sequence data. We find no evidence of an association between rates of molecular and morphological rates of change.