Values,Errors, and Precautions

In the environmental health literature, errors in interpreting studies or data are not infrequent. Many are of the Type II variety. Common solecisms of this type are: treating the criterion of p < 0.05 as a sacrament; demanding complete confounder control; arguing for the existence of phantom confounders; arguing that the effect size is trivial; building nonveridical models; arguing for no effect from inadequate sample size; demanding causal proof; arguing that causality is reversed; conducting a ballot of published studies. These are examined in this paper.     

A comparison of vector population indices for forecasting barley yellow dwarf virus in autumn sown cereal crops

Two approaches based on the concept of a vector population index are considered as possible deterministic elements for an empirical forecast of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) in autumn sown cereals. The first, an aerial vector index, is a further elaboration of the infectivity index proposed by Plumb, Lennon & Gutteridge (1981), which assumes that virus damage is a function of the number of infective migrant alatae of the two main aphid vectors, Rhopalosiphum padi L. and Sitobion avenae F., integrated over time from crop planting or emergence. The new formulation, however, excludes holocyclic alate morphs (i.e. males and gynoparae) of the former species, which, although generally abundant in autumn, are nevertheless perceived as relatively unimportant virus vectors since they colonise only the alternative woody host, Prunus padus (the bird-cherry tree). The second approach, a crop vector index, is a more fundamental departure which argues that field populations of viruliferous aphids, both alatae and apterae, which have already colonised cereals, may be a better criterion of potential virus spread than the density of aerial migrant vectors. This index retains a similar integral form, but evaluates crop exposure to BYDV as accumulated infectious aphid-days. A method is described whereby this function can be derived from irregular or infrequent aphid samples in the crop. Both methods, unlike Plumb's (1976) original concept, produced indices which were significantly related to subsequent virus infection and yield loss in winter barley at Long Ashton (S.W. England, UK), 1978–1986. The best models were obtained with the crop vector index, fitted to observed virus infection by generalised linear regression using a complementary log-log link function, or to observed yield loss by simple linear regression using a log transformation of yield (r = 0.84 in each case; compared with r-values > 0.65 for the aerial vector index, and > 0.35 for Plumb's (1976) index). However, the residual errors and hence confidence limits of these fitted regressions were too large for predicting damage that was significantly less than a reasonable economic damage threshold for BYDV control. Analyses of the separate components of each index showed a good general relationship between aphid infectivity and the severity of crop infection, confirming the epidemiological importance of this factor. The functional expressions of aphid density, however, were not significant. This evident weakness in the models, and alternative approaches to BYDV forecasting are discussed.     

Farms,pastures and woodlands: the fine‐scale distribution of Palearctic Culicoides spp. biting midges along an agro‐ecological gradient

The spatial epidemiology of Bluetongue virus (BTV) at the landscape level relates to the fine‐scale distribution and dispersal capacities of its vectors, midges belonging to the genus Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Although many previous researches have carried out Culicoides sampling on farms, little is known of the fine‐scale distribution of Culicoides in the landscape immediately surrounding farms. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of Culicoides populations at increasing distances from typical dairy farms in north‐west Europe, through the use of eight Onderstepoort‐type black‐light traps positioned along linear transects departing from farms, going through pastures and entering woodlands. A total of 16 902 Culicoides were collected in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. The majority were females, of which more than 97% were recognized as potential vectors. In pastures, we found decreasing numbers of female Culicoides as a function of the distance to the farm. This pattern was modelled by leptokurtic models, with parameters depending on season and species. By contrast, the low number of male Culicoides caught were homogeneously distributed along the transects. When transects entered woodlands, we found a higher abundance of Culicoides than expected considering the distance of the sampling sites to the farm, although this varied according to species.     

Use of disease progress curves to study the effects of the biocontrol agent Sporidesmium sclerotivorum on lettuce drop

At the end of the spring 1987 growing season, the mycoparasite Sporidesmium sclerotivorum was applied at 0, 0.2, 2 or 20 kg ha^‐1 to lettuce plants infected with Sclerotinia minor. Disease incidence was monitored in the same plots for five subsequent crops (three fall and two spring crops) without additional application of either pathogen or mycoparasite. Logistic growth curves were fitted to the data to describe disease progression over time for each inoculum level within each of the five crops. Within each crop, increasing the quantity of mycoparasite inoculum resulted in positive horizontal displacement of the curve with respect to time. As quantities of inoculum of S. sclerotivorum increased, inflection points of the disease progress curves increased at a decreasing rate. Thus, additional mycoparasite inoculum resulted in ever‐smaller increases in inflection point, and after a certain threshold level of mycoparasite inoculum (< 0.2 kg ha^‐1), increases in inflection point did not result in meaningful increases in harvestable lettuce. Maximum rates of disease increase were not different among the treatments within each crop, but were different between crops. Maximum rates of disease increase averaged 3.4, 3.4, 2.1, 3.6 and 1.5% day^‐1 for the fall 1987, spring 1988, fall 1988, spring 1989, and fall 1989, respectively. At all inoculum levels, the fall epidemics began later after planting than the spring epidemics.     

Aspects of the life history of Cercopithifilaria johnstoni (Nematoda:Filarioidea)

and 1988. Aspects of the life history of Cercopithifilaria johnstoni (Nematoda:Filarioidea). International Journal for Parasitology 18: 1087–1092. Cercopithifilaria johnstoni (Nematoda:Filarioidea) occurs in the subcutaneous connective tissues of a spectrum of native murid and marsupial hosts in Eastern Australia. Life cycle studies revealed that: (i) microfilaria occur in lymphatic capillaries and extravascular connective tissue of the dermis (= ‘skin-inhabiting’), (ii) ixodid ticks, particularly Ixodes trichosuri, are intermediate hosts in nature, (iii) development from microfilariae to infective third-stage larva occurs only while the tick is off the host, that is, during ecdysis from larva to nymph or from nymph to adult. Transmission of C. johnstoni in a wild population of bush rats (Rattus fuscipes) occurred in summer and winter, and was associated with peaks in the number of larval and/or nymphal stages of ticks on rats. C. johnstoni was transmitted experimentally to bandicoots (Isoodon macrourus, Perameles nasuta), bush rats and laboratory rats (R. norvegicus), indirectly by subcutaneous inoculation of third-stage larvae and directly by tick feeding. The prepatent period was approximately 3 months and the longest duration of microfilariae in the ‘ skin’ was more than 25 months. Dermal and ocular lesions were observed in R. fuscipes. The host-parasite relationship has the potential for development as an inexpensive and practical model for human onchocerciasis.     

In vitro culture of the strobilar stage of Echinococcus granulosus from protoscoleces of human, camel, cattle, sheep and goat origin from Kenya and buffalo origin from India

Protoscoleces from human, camel, cattle, sheep, goat (all from Kenya) and buffalo (from India) hydatid cysts were cultured under identical conditions in vitro using the diphasic culture system of Smyth (1979b). Organisms from all sources grew and segmented in culture. Genital anlagen developed in all cultured worms but further genital differentiation occurred only in cultures of cattle (testes) and camel (testes and genital pore) material. The possible significance of these results is discussed in relation to the general epidemiology of hydatid disease and the potential infectivity of the different strains to man.     

长春和北京地区引起婴幼儿肺炎的3型与7型腺病毒的分子流行病学研究

对长春和北京地区连续12年(1976年冬至1988年春)引起小儿肺炎的3、7型腺病毒102株标本,进行了限制性内切酶核酸电泳图谱分析。56株7型腺病毒经BamHⅠ、BclⅠ、BglⅠ、XbaⅠ、SmaⅠ、HindⅢ分析后,表现为两个基因组型——Ad7 b和Ad7 d。46株3型腺病毒被Bg1 Ⅱ、BamHⅠ酶解后,表现为 3个基因组型——Ad 3Ⅰ、Ad 3Ⅱ、Ad 3Ⅲ。各基因组型的分布情况是:56株7型腺病毒中,43株为Ad 7 b(76.8％),流行于1976年冬至1986年春;13株是Ad 7 d(23.2％),出现于1982年,与Ad 7 b共同流行;1986年～1988年分析的5株病毒都是Ad 7d。43株3型腺病毒中,Ad3Ⅰ42株(91.0％),分布于12年中;Ad 3Ⅱ、Ad 3Ⅲ各2株,散在分布。此结果表明,国内这12年中引起小儿肺炎的3型腺病毒至少有3个基因组型,7型腺病毒至少有两个基因组型。Ad3Ⅰ和Ad7 b是流行优势基因组型。但自80年代初开始出现Ad7 d以来,有逐年增多的趋势,最近两年的标本又都是Ad7 d,很可能它将取代Ad7 b而成为流行的优势基因组型.     

Changes in drinking water selenium and mortality for coronary disease in a residential cohort

In a part of the municipal territory of Reggio Emilia, northern Italy, selenium in drinking water decreased from 7 μg/L to less than 1 μg/L. In a cohort of 4419 individuals, previously exposed for at least 5 yr to the drinking water with higher selenium content, the 7-yr temporal distribution of deaths for coronary disease and for stroke was analyzed to examine a possible relationship with changes in drinking water selenium. From January 1986 until August 1988, when tap water selenium was 7 μg/L, deaths for coronary disease were one in males and two in females. After the decrease in drinking water selenium, 21 and 10 coronary deaths were observed, respectively, in males and in females from September 1988 to December 1992. No significant difference in the temporal distribution of stroke deaths was observed both in males and in females. Even if an effect of chance and aging in the temporal distribution of coronary deaths may not be excluded, findings of the study seem to be consistent with the hypothesis of a beneficial effect of selenium on coronary disease mortality.