Modeling the effects of El Niño, density-dependence, and disturbance on harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) counts in Drakes Estero, California: 1997–2007

Harbor seal ( Phoca vitulina ) haul-out site use may be affected by natural or anthropogenic factors. Here, we use an 11-yr (1997–2007) study of a seal colony located near a mariculture operation in Drakes Estero, California, to test for natural (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), density-dependence, long-term trends) and anthropogenic (disturbance or displacement related to oyster production activities) factors that may influence the use of haul-out subsites. Annual mariculture related seal disturbance rates increased significantly with increases in oyster harvest ( r _s= 0.55). Using generalized linear models (GLMs) ranked by best fit and Akaike's Information Criteria, ENSO and oyster production (as a proxy for disturbance/displacement) best explained the patterns of seal use at all three subsites near the mariculture operations, with effects being stronger at the two subsites closest to operations. Conversely, density-dependence and linear trend effects poorly explained the counts at these subsites. We conclude that a combination of ENSO and mariculture activities best explain the patterns of seal haul-out use during the breeding/pupping season at the seal haul-out sites closest to oyster activities.     

The Tangled Bank: The maintenance of sexual reproduction through competitive interactions

The maintenance of sexual reproduction is discussed using a model based on the familiar Lotka-Volterra competition equations. Both the equilibrium and the stability conditions that allow a sexual population to resist invasion by a single asexual clone are considered. The equilibrium conditions give results similar to previous models: When the cost of sex, within phenotype niche width, and environmental variance are low, the sexual population coexists with the asexual clone and remains at a high density. However, the asexual clone is never completely excluded. Analysis of the stability conditions shows a different picture: The introduction of an asexual clone considerably reduces the stability of the community. However, owing to its larger total niche width, the sexual population exists partly in a “competitor-free space” where the asexual clone has almost no influence on the outcome of the interactions. Therefore the asexual clone is less stable than the sexual population and has a higher probability of extinction. In contrast, the sexual population does not become extinct, since the extreme phenotypes remain at a stable, though low, density, and the central phenotypes, where stability is low, are recreated every generation through recombination. I therefore conclude that the ecological conditions under which sexual reproduction is favored over asexual reproduction are fairly easily attained and are more general than previous analyses had suggested.     

Host-plant influence on the population ecology of the jack pine budworm, Choristoneura pinus (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

Abstract.

• 1 Newly-emerged, second-instar jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus Freeman) establish spring feeding sites preferentially in the pollen cones of their host tree, Pinus banksiana Lamb.
• 2 Laboratory studies showed that the rate of establishment and survival of jack pine budworm on pollen cones was high throughout the entire spring emergence period of the insect.
• 3 In contrast, the rate of establishment and survival of jack pine budworm on vegetative buds was very poor early in the spring. Vegetative buds were only acceptable as feeding sites to the jack pine budworm for a relatively brief period in late spring.
• 4 Field studies showed that the change in population density of jack pine budworm during the spring emergence stage, as expressed by k-values, was a function of the abundance of pollen cones in the stand. Population reduction was greatest in those stands with the fewest pollen cones.
• 5 Direct measurement of spring dispersal by jack pine budworm showed that dispersal and consequent losses to the budworm population were greatest in stands with the fewest pollen cones.
• 6 We conclude that changes in the density of jack pine budworm are strongly influenced by production of pollen cones in the host stand. Because pollen cone production is related to previous years of defoliation by the jack pine budworm, we propose that pollen cones act as a density-dependent factor governing the density of early-stage jack pine budworm.
• 7 The resulting dynamics are compared to those of other budworm species and used to explain observed regional and temporal patterns of jack pine budworm outbreaks.

     

Stock and recruitment and inversely density-dependent growth of salmon, Salmo salar L., in a Scottish stream

For the 6 years for which detailed data are readily available, estimates of the survival of emergent fry of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., to the first and second autumns at a site on the Shelligan Burn are consistent with the dome-shaped Ricker model with about 11 emergent fry m⁻² maximizing recruitment. The data are not satisfactorily fitted by the asymptotic Beverton and Holt model. A possible mechanism, which results from the observed inversely density-dependent growth, is discussed briefly.     

Effects of parasitoid community structure upon the population dynamics of the honeysuckle leafminer,Chromatomyia suikazurae (Diptera: Agromyzidae)

Population dynamics of a leafminer,Chromatomyia suikazurae (Agromyzidae, Diptera) and its parasitoid community were studied for ten years at seven natural populations along an altitudinal gradient in Japan. This species which mines leaves of a forest shrub,Lonicera gracilipes (Caprifoliaceae), was attacked by 25 hymenopterous parasitoid species. Annually, the parasitoid community structure varied less within a population than among populations. The seven parasitoid communities were clustered into three groups corresponding to the altitudinal gradient: (a) lowland communities dominated by late-attacking, generalist pupal idiobiont eulophids and with highest species diversity, (b) hillside communities dominated by an early-attacking, specialist larval-pupal koinobiont braconid and (c) highland communities dominated by an early-attacking, generalist larval idiobiont eulophid. Annual changes of the host larval densities among the local populations were largely synchronous rather than cyclic. Among these populations, host density levels and mortality patterns greatly varied. By analyzing these inter-populational differences of host mortality patterns, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) The host mortality patterns were determined by the host utilization patterns of the locally dominant species. (2) The host pupal mortality but not larval mortality was related to species diversity but not to species richness itself of each parasitoid community. (3) Density dependence was detected only in pupal mortality at a lowland population dominated by late-attacking pupal parasitoids. These results suggest that interspecific interactions of parasitoids add additive effects to host population dynamics dissimilarly among local populations with different parasitoid communities.     

Relationship between abundance, growth, egg size and fecundity in a landlocked population of longfin smelt, Spirinchus thaleichthys

Sixteen year-classes of longfin smelt, Spirinchus thaleichthys , show a consistent pattern of alternating year-class strength between even (strong) and odd (weak) years. A recent (1989) odd year-class grew as well as, if not better than, the late 1960s odd year-classes. However, fish in the even year-classes (1988 and 1990) were significantly smaller in size then the 1966 and 1968 cohorts. Associated with this reduction in growth of the even year-class fish is a decline in fecundity. Fecundity of the odd year-classes of smelt was also smaller than in the early 1960s. Mean egg diameter and gonadosomatic index were not statistically different between 1988 and 1989 year-classes but the relative fecundity was higher for the 1988 year-class than for 1989, suggesting a higher reproductive investment in the even year-class. Reduction in growth and associated reproductive traits is considered to result from a reduction in the abundance of mysids, a preferred prey species.     

Transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis: density-dependence in the uptake of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae by vector mosquitoes

Gaining a better understanding of parasite infection dynamics in the vector mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) population is central to improving knowledge regarding the transmission, persistence and hence control of lymphatic filariasis. Here, we use data on mosquito feeding experiments collated from the published literature to examine the available evidence regarding the functional form of the first component of this parasite-vector relationship for Wuchereria bancrofti (Filarioidea: Onchocercidae) causing Bancroftian filariasis, i.e. the rate of microfilariae (mf) uptake from the blood of infected humans by the feeding mosquito vector. Using a simple logarithmic regression model for describing the observed relationships between the mean numbers of mf ingested per mosquito and parasite load in humans in each study, and a linear mixed-effects meta-analytical framework for synthesizing the observed regressions across studies, we show here for the first time clear evidence for the existence of density-dependence in this process for all the three major filariasis transmitting mosquito vectors. An important finding of this study is that this regulation of mf uptake also varies significantly between the vector genera, being weakest in Culex, comparatively stronger in Aedes and most severe and occurring at significantly lower human mf loads in Anopheles mosquitoes. The analysis of the corresponding mf uptake prevalence data has further highlighted how density-dependence in mf uptake may influence the observed distributions of mf in vector populations. These results show that whereas strong regulation of mf uptake, especially when it leads to saturation in uptake at low human parasite intensities, can lead to static distributions of mf per mosquito with host parasite intensity, a weaker regulation of mf ingestion can give rise to changes in both mean mf loads and in the frequency distribution of parasites/mosquito with increasing human parasite intensity. These findings highlight the importance of considering local vector infection dynamics when attempting to predict the impacts of community-based filariasis control. They also emphasize the value of developing and applying robust meta-analytic methods for estimating functional relationships regarding parasitic infection from population ecological data.     

Identifying key factors using λ contribution analysis

1. Key factor analysis is widely used as the first step in analysing census data to identify factors responsible for population change, but is generally considered to be flawed. The conceptual problems can be overcome by assessing the effects of variation in the life-history parameters on population growth rate, λ. We refer to this as λ-contribution analysis. The difference from key factor analysis is that now each life history parameter is weighted by the sensitivity of λ to that parameter. The rationale for this modification is that population growth rate is the best available measure of population change.
2. The advantages of the new method are: that it correctly assesses the effects of life history parameters on population growth rate; that birth rates are included in the analysis in a natural way without making arbitrary assumptions about birth rate mortalities; that post-reproductive individuals who do not contribute to population growth rate are zero-weighted; and that the analysis can be applied to populations with overlapping generations.
3. It is proposed that λ-contribution analysis should replace conventional key-factor analysis as the first step in a wider analysis of population change and density dependence. λ-contribution analysis also links census studies of natural populations with the use of life-table response experiments.     

Influence of Density and Climate on Population Dynamics of a Large Herbivore Under Harsh Environmental Conditions

ABSTRACT Dynamics of herbivore populations can be influenced both by density-dependent processes and climate. We used age-at-harvest data for adult female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) collected over 23 years to estimate survival and reproduction by age class and to identify effects of environmental factors. The study population was located on Anticosti Island (QC, Canada), at the northern limit of the species' range; the population was at high density, and the landscape had scarce forage and abundant snow during winter. Despite severe environmental conditions, population growth apparently increased during the study; adult survival was similar to other populations, although reproduction appeared lower. Winter severity was not related to survival, but density affected adult female survival. Density at estrus was the main factor influencing reproduction of 2- and 3–4-year-olds and also affected reproduction of prime-aged females (5–9-yr-olds), but not of older females. Reproductive rate of younger females was influenced by environmental conditions in autumn, such as high density or snow conditions that limited forage availability. Reproductive success of 5–9- and ≥10-year-old females appeared dependent on spring conditions favoring high-quality forage, probably through effects on neonatal survival. Relative to other studies on northern ungulates, demographic processes in our study appeared to be more affected by autumn and spring climate, in addition to population density, than by winter climate. We thus propose that population density, as well as autumn and spring climate, should be considered in management strategies. Harvest data offered a unique opportunity to study forest ungulates, for which individual monitoring is rarely possible.