Rapid, landscape scale responses in riparian tundra vegetation to exclusion of small and large mammalian herbivores

Productive tundra plant communities composed of a variety of fast growing herbaceous and woody plants are likely to attract mammalian herbivores. Such vegetation is likely to respond to different-sized herbivores more rapidly than currently acknowledged from the tundra. Accentuated by currently changing populations of arctic mammals there is a need to understand impacts of different-sized herbivores on the dynamics of productive tundra plant communities. Here we assess the differential effects of ungulate (reindeer) and small rodent herbivores (voles and lemmings) on high productive tundra vegetation. A spatially extensive exclosure experiment was run for three years on river sediment plains along two river catchments in low-arctic Norway. The river catchments were similar in species pools but differed in species abundance composition of both plants and vertebrate herbivores. Biomass of forbs, deciduous shrubs and silica-poor grasses increased by 40–50% in response to release from herbivory, whereas biomass of silica-rich grasses decreased by 50–75%. Hence both additive and compensatory effects of small rodents and reindeer exclusion caused these significant changes in abundance composition of the plant communities. Changes were also rapid, evident after only one growing season, and are among the fastest and strongest ever documented in Arctic vegetation. The rate of changes indicates a tight link between the dynamics of productive tundra vegetation and both small and large herbivores. Responses were however not spatially consistent, being highly different between the catchments. We conclude that despite similar species pools, variation in plant species abundance and herbivore species dynamics give different prerequisites for change.     

Asynchronous population dynamics of Siberian lemmings across the Palaearctic tundra

The synchrony of Siberian lemming (Lemmus sibiricus L.) population dynamics was investigated during a ship-borne expedition along the Palaearctic tundra coast in the summer of 1994. On 12 sites along the coast from the Kola Peninsula to Wrangel Island, relative densities of lemmings were recorded using a standardised snap-trapping programme. The phase position of the lemming cycle in each of the studied populations was determined based on current density estimates, signs of previous density and the age profile of each population (ageing based on eye lens mass). In addition, dendrochronological methods were used to determine when the last peak in the density of microtine populations occurred at each site. The examined lemming populations were in different phases of the lemming cycle. Some populations were in the peak phase, as indicated by high current densities, an age profile in which older individuals were well represented, and signs of high previous density (abundant old lemming faeces). Other populations were in the decline phase, as reflected in a moderate current density, a predominance of older individuals and signs of high previous density. Populations in the low phase had an extremely low current density and showed signs of high previous density, while populations in the increase phase had a moderate current density, a predominance of younger individuals and showed signs of low previous density. The results of phase determinations based on dendrochronological methods support the findings based on lemming demography. Recent Russian studies carried out on some of the sites also agreed with our phase determination results. Thus, on a regional scale (across the whole Palaearctic tundra), the population dynamics of Siberian lemmings can be considered asynchronous. However, sites situated adjacent to each other were often phase synchronous, suggesting a more fine-grained pattern of dynamics with synchrony over distances as long as 1000 km or so, e.g. the Yamal and Taymyr Peninsulas. Received: 19 August 1998 / Accepted: 1 March 1999     

How biotic interactions may alter future predictions of species distributions: future threats to the persistence of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia

Aim With climate change, reliable predictions of future species geographic distributions are becoming increasingly important for the design of appropriate conservation measures. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict geographic range shifts in response to climate change. However, because species communities are likely to change with the climate, accounting for biotic interactions is imperative. A shortcoming of introducing biotic interactions in SDMs is the assumption that biotic interactions remain the same under changing climatic factors, which is disputable. We explore the performance of SDMs while including biotic interactions. Location Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We investigate the appropriateness of the inclusion of biotic factors (predator pressure and prey availability) in assessing the future distribution of the arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) in Fennoscandia by means of SDM, using the algorithm MaxEnt. Results Our results show that the inclusion of biotic interactions enhanced the accuracy of SDMs to predict the current arctic fox distribution, and we argue that the accuracy of future predictions might also be enhanced. While the range of the arctic fox is predicted to have decreased by 43% in 2080 because of temperature‐related variables, projected increases in predator pressure and reduced prey availability are predicted to constrain the potential future geographic range of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia 13% more. Main conclusions The results indicate that, provided one has a good knowledge of past changes and a clear understanding of interactions in the community involved, the inclusion of biotic interactions in modelling future geographic ranges of species increases the predictive power of such models. This likely has far‐reaching impacts upon the design and implementation of possible conservation and management plans. Control of competing predators and supplementary feeding are suggested as necessary management actions to preserve the Fennoscandian arctic fox population in the face of climate change.     

Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub‐dominated ecosystems to changing climate

Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub‐dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long‐term experimental warming in a forest–tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low‐biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub‐dominated ecosystems to climate warming.     

Reproductive behaviour of female Siberian lemmings during the increase and peak phase of the lemming cycle

The reproduction of female Siberian lemmings in the increase and peak phases of the lemming cycle was investigated in connection with a ship-borne expedition along the Siberian arctic tundra. The cycle phase of each studied lemming population was determined using demographic analyses, i.e. current density indices (captured lemmings per 100 traps per 24 h), information on previous density (frequency of old lemming faeces and runways), and information from dendrochronological analyses revealing the most recent winters with a high intensity of willow-stem scarring caused by lemmings. The cycle phase determination was corroborated with data on the age profiles of the populations. The reproductive behaviour of female lemmings differed markedly in relation to cycle phase. In increase-phase populations, all captured females (including young and winter born) were reproducing (had embryos or were lactating), and females started to reproduce early in life, i.e. when <2 months old. By contrast, in peak-phase populations, only 6% of the young females and 63% of the winter-born ones were reproducing, and females did not start to reproduce until they were 5–6 months old. The average number of embryos per reproducing female was significantly higher in increase-phase populations than in peak-phase ones. It is concluded that the rapid population growth in lemmings during the increase phase can largely be explained by the early (young age) reproductive start and, consequently, the shorter generation time, the high proportion of females taking part in reproduction, and the large litters produced. Similarly, a delay in the start of reproduction, a lower proportion of reproducing females, and smaller litter sizes produced by peak-phase lemming populations can contribute substantially to the deceleration in the population increase and possibly lead to a decline. Received: 14 June 1999 / Accepted: 15 November 1999