Spatial covariation of fish population vital rates in a stream network

Animal populations are spatially structured in heterogeneous landscapes, in which local patches with differing vital rates are connected by dispersal of individuals to varying degrees. Although there is evidence that vital rates differ among local populations, much less is understood about how vital rates covary among local patches in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. In this study, we conducted a nine-year annual mark–recapture survey to characterize spatial covariation of survival and growth for two Japanese native salmonids, white-spotted charr Salvelinus leucomaenis japonicus and red-spotted masu salmon Oncorhynchus masou ishikawae, in a headwater stream network composed of distinctly different tributary and mainstem habitats. Spatial structure of survival and growth differed by species and age class, but results provided support for negative covariation between vital rates, where survival was higher in the tributary habitat but growth was higher in the mainstem habitat. Thus, neither habitat was apparently more important than the other, and local habitats with complementary vital rates may make this spatially structured population less vulnerable to environmental change (i.e. portfolio effect). Despite the spatial structure of vital rates and possibilities that fish can exploit spatially distributed resources, movement of fish was limited due partly to a series of low-head dams that prevented upstream movement of fish in the study area. This study shows that spatial structure of vital rates can be complex and depend on species and age class, and this knowledge is likely paramount to elucidating dynamics of spatially structured populations.     

Estimability of migration survival rates from integrated breeding and winter capture–recapture data

Long‐distance migration is a common phenomenon across the animal kingdom but the scale of annual migratory movements has made it difficult for researchers to estimate survival rates during these periods of the annual cycle. Estimating migration survival is particularly challenging for small‐bodied species that cannot carry satellite tags, a group that includes the vast majority of migratory species. When capture–recapture data are available for linked breeding and non‐breeding populations, estimation of overall migration survival is possible but current methods do not allow separate estimation of spring and autumn survival rates. Recent development of a Bayesian integrated survival model has provided a method to separately estimate the latent spring and autumn survival rates using capture–recapture data, though the accuracy and precision of these estimates has not been formally tested. Here, I used simulated data to explore the estimability of migration survival rates using this model. Under a variety of biologically realistic scenarios, I demonstrate that spring and autumn migration survival can be estimated from the integrated survival model, though estimates are biased toward the overall migration survival probability. The direction and magnitude of this bias are influenced by the relative difference in spring and autumn survival rates as well as the degree of annual variation in these rates. The inclusion of covariates can improve the model's performance, especially when annual variation in migration survival rates is low. Migration survival rates can be estimated from relatively short time series (4–5 years), but bias and precision of estimates are improved when longer time series (10–12 years) are available. The ability to estimate seasonal survival rates of small, migratory organisms opens the door to advancing our understanding of the ecology and conservation of these species. Application of this method will enable researchers to better understand when mortality occurs across the annual cycle and how the migratory periods contribute to population dynamics. Integrating summer and winter capture data requires knowledge of the migratory connectivity of sampled populations and therefore efforts to simultaneously collect both survival and tracking data should be a high priority, especially for species of conservation concern.     

Open Capture–Recapture Models with Heterogeneity: II. Jolly–Seber Model

Summary Estimation of abundance is important in both open and closed population capture–recapture analysis, but unmodeled heterogeneity of capture probability leads to negative bias in abundance estimates. This article defines and develops a suite of open population capture–recapture models using finite mixtures to model heterogeneity of capture and survival probabilities. Model comparisons and parameter estimation use likelihood‐based methods. A real example is analyzed, and simulations are used to check the main features of the heterogeneous models, especially the quality of estimation of abundance, survival, recruitment, and turnover. The two major advances in this article are the provision of realistic abundance estimates that take account of heterogenetiy of capture, and an appraisal of the amount of overestimation of survival arising from conditioning on the first capture when heterogeneity of survival is present.     

Jolly—Seber法中种群存活率估算的探讨

在Jolly-Seber法中,存活率为其核心参数之一。一些作者指出,采用Jolly-Seber法估算标志重捕数据有时候会出现存活率大于1的情形。本文就这一情形做了相应的分析,认为产生这一现象的原因为标志个体间不具有等捕性或等存活率所致。在设计标志重捕取样的野外调查中,应设法提高重捕率以增加估计精度。     

Transience in the humpback whale population of New Caledonia and implications for abundance estimation

A phenomenon of transience in the humpback whale population breeding in New Caledonia has been highlighted in recent analyses. We used these data to illustrate the risk of flawed inference when transience is not properly accounted for in abundance estimation of resident populations. Transients are commonly defined as individuals that pass through the sampling area once, i.e., have a null probability of being caught again, and therefore induce heterogeneity in the detection process. The presence of transients can lead to severe bias in the estimation of abundance and we demonstrate how to correct for this feature when estimating abundance of resident populations. In New Caledonia, very different conclusions about the number of resident whales in the southern lagoon between 1999 and 2005 are obtained when the abundance estimate accounts for the transient whales. Without correction, the estimates of the abundance were up to twice as high across all years compared to the estimates of the resident population when a correction for transients had been incorporated. Having reliable population estimates when assessing the status of endangered species is essential in documenting recovery and monitoring of population trends. Therefore, we encourage researchers to account for transients when reporting abundances of resident populations.     

Jolly-Seber法中种群存活率估算的探讨

在Jolly Seber法中 ,存活率为其核心参数之一。一些作者指出 ,采用Jolly Seber法估算标志重捕数据有时候会出现存活率大于 1的情形。本文就这一情形做了相应的分析 ,认为产生这一现象的原因为标志个体间不具有等捕性或等存活率所致。在设计标志重捕取样的野外调查中 ,应设法提高重捕率以增加估计精度     

Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces

Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.     

Demography and mobility of three common understory butterfly species from tropical rain forest of Papua New Guinea

The mobility of butterflies determines their ability to find host plant species, and thus their potential host plant range, as well as their ability to maintain meta-populations in fragmented habitats. While butterfly movement has been extensively studied for temperate species, very little is known for tropical forest species. A mark-release-recapture study of the three most common butterfly species in the understory of a lowland primary rainforest in Papua New Guinea included 3,705, 394 and 317 marked individuals of Danis danis, Taenaris sp. and Parthenos aspila respectively, with 1,031, 78 and 40 butterfly individuals recaptured at least once. Over a period of 6 weeks there were almost 22,000 individuals belonging to these three species hatching within or entering our four study plots totaling 14.58 ha in area. The most abundant species, D. danis, with 20,000 individuals, showed highly variable population densities during the study. The residency time in the studied plots was highest for P. aspila (84 days), as individual butterflies stayed mostly in a single gap; we estimated that less than 1 % of individuals disperse 1 km or more. Similar movement probability was found in D. danis whilst in Taenaris sp., 10 % of the population disperses ≥1 km. Movement distances of D. danis were more than sufficient to locate its host plant, Derris elliptica, which occurred in 61 % of the 20 × 20 m subplots within a 50 ha plot. Compared with temperate species, our three species have much longer life spans, but their movement patterns remain within the known mobility estimates of temperate species. The mobility of D. danis is close to the average for temperate Lycaenidae, while Taenaris sp. is more mobile and P. aspila less mobile than the mean for all temperate species.