Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Pancreatic NeuroendocrineTumors

BACKGROUND: The objective of current study was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried for patients with PNETs between 2004 and 2015. Patients were randomly separated into the training set and the validation set. Cox regression model was used in training set to obtain independent prognostic factors to develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS). The discrimination and calibration plots were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 3142 patients with PNETs were collected from the SEER database. Sex, age, marital status, primary site, TNM stage, tumor grade, and therapy were associated with OS in the multivariate models. A nomogram was constructed based on these variables. The nomogram for predicting OS displayed better discrimination power than the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage systems 7th edition in the training set and validation set. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 3- and 5-year OS. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram which could predict 3- and 5-year OS were established in this study. Our nomogram showed a good performance, suggesting that it could be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with PNETs.     

江苏泗洪早中新世下草湾组仓鼠科化石(英文)

描述了20世纪80年代在江苏泗洪早中新世下草湾组采集的5属5种仓鼠类动物化石,其中包括1新属和4新种,即Eumyarioninae亚科的Alloeumyarion sihongensis gen.et sp.nov.,Cricetodontinae亚科的Cricetodon wanhei sp.nov.,Copemyinae亚科的Primus pusillus sp.nov.和Democricetodon suensis sp.nov.,以及Megacricetodontinae亚科的Megacricetodon sinensis Qiu et al.,1981。Cricetodon,Democricetodon和Megacricetodon属常见于早、中新世地层,并有较广泛的地理分布;Primus属仅发现于印度次大陆下中新统;新属Alloeumyarion可能与Eumyarion属有较接近的亲缘关系。泗洪发现的仓鼠是该哺乳动物群中种类最多、材料最丰富的一类啮齿动物。泗洪地点位于现代东洋界与古北界的过渡地带,这一化石组合的出现为我国中新世哺乳动物地理及其演变的研究提供了有用的证据。根据仓鼠类化石的研究,下草湾组的时代很可能属于早中新世晚期,或者是中国陆相哺乳动物时代的山旺期,大体相当于欧洲陆相哺乳动物时代的奥尔良期或MN4带的时代。这些新属和新种的特征如下:异美鼠(新属)(Alloeumyarion gen.nov):美鼠亚科中个体中等者。牙齿低冠;齿尖中度鼓胀、趋于脊形。上臼齿三根,内谷前指向,原脊和后脊近横向平行排列,无前尖后刺;M1前叶前后向伸长,前边尖简单,有宽大的后边谷,但无前脊刺;M2的原脊稍前指向,舌侧与原尖前边连接;M3的后部明显退化。下臼齿双根,下外谷横向、近对称;m1下前边尖简单,下前脊单一,下原尖和下次尖的后臂不很发育;m2无下次尖后臂。万合古仓鼠(新种)(Cricetodon wanhei sp.nov.):个体中等大小。M1和M2四齿根,在早期磨蚀的牙齿中有清楚的后边谷,但外脊发育弱;M1的前边尖简单或略微分开;M2前边脊舌侧支模糊;M3冠面近圆形,多数牙齿的内谷为连接原尖和次尖的脊封闭,时见原脊后刺;m1具双下后脊和短的下中脊;m3与m2等长或比m2稍大,具短的下前边脊舌侧支。细先鼠(新种)(Primus pusillus sp.nov.):个体小。M1的前叶前后向较短,前边尖和前边脊弱,原脊略后指与原尖后臂连接,后脊稍前指与次尖前臂相连;m1具较宽且呈刀形的前边尖,下次脊前指向。苏众古仓鼠(新种)(Democricetodon suensis sp.nov.):个体中等大小,颊齿低冠,齿尖和齿脊较弱,臼齿中脊的长度一般在中长至长之间,上臼齿的双原脊不甚发育。M1的前边尖简单而窄,原尖前臂和原脊II间常有一脊相连;M2的后脊横向或稍前向;M2和M3多具"轴脊"("axi-oloph");m1的下前边尖单一而窄小;多数m1和m2有下外中脊;m3的下中脊通常显著。