On the solution of mathematical models of herd immunity in human helminth infections

The general solution of the mathematical model of herd immunity to human helminth infections recently proposed by Anderson and May [3] is obtained. The numerical solution of a more accurate biological model is indistinguishable from the corresponding exact solution of a more tractable mathematical model. Computer simulations of some particular cases of this model support the notion that both ecological and immunological factors determine the observed convex patterns of age-prevalence and age-intensity curves of human helminth infections.This work was made thanks to the advise and support of Dr. Robert M. May while the author was Postdoctoral Fellow at Princeton University     

Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size

An S I R S epidemiological model with vital dynamics in a population of varying size is discussed. A complete global analysis is given which uses a new result to establish the nonexistence of periodic solutions. Results are discussed in terms of three explicit threshold parameters which respectively govern the increase of the total population, the existence and stability of an endemic proportion equilibrium and the growth of the infective population. These lead to two distinct concepts of disease eradication which involve the total number of infectives and their proportion in the population.Partially supported by NSF Grant No. DMS-8703631. This work was done while this author was visiting the University of VictoriaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965     

A threshold result for an epidemiological model

A threshold parameter R ₀ is identified for an SIRS epidemiological model which has nonlinear incidence and a distributed delay for transfer out of the removed class. For R ₀ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is proved to be the global attractor for all solutions.Research supplied in part by NSERC A-8965     

Some epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence

Epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates can have very different dynamic behaviors than those with the usual bilinear incidence rate. The first model considered here includes vital dynamics and a disease process where susceptibles become exposed, then infectious, then removed with temporary immunity and then susceptible again. When the equilibria and stability are investigated, it is found that multiple equilibria exist for some parameter values and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation from the larger endemic equilibrium. Many results analogous to those in the first model are obtained for the second model which has a delay in the removed class but no exposed class.Research supported in part by Centers for Disease Control Contract 200-87-0515. Support services provided at University House Research Center at the University of IowaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965 and the University of Victoria President's Committee on Faculty Research and Travel     

金丝猴(RHINOPITHECUS)脑的外部形态

本文是对三种金丝猴脑的外部形态的观察结果表明:金丝猴的大脑皮层除存在猴科固有的全部沟裂外,还较其他猴科动物具有更多的副沟。大脑的沟型与疣猴亚科的特征完全吻合,但是很多特点都较叶猴更近似于长臂猿。另外,除了蚓叶和蚓结节较小,四叠体的下丘较猕猴发达以外,金丝猴的小脑和脑干均与猴科的一般特征无明显差异。     

人分裂细胞核抗原基因片段的筛选、测序及对启动子的分析

经６．６×１０５个克隆筛选,从装在λ噬菌体载体Ｃｈａｒｏｎ３０中的人基因库中筛选到了一个含人分裂细胞核抗原（ＰＣＮＡ）基因的克隆。经Ｓｏｕｔｈｅｒｎ杂交分析插入基因长约１４ｋｂ,有较长的５＇上游区,但３＇端缺少一部分。经亚克隆和测序已确定从５＇上游１２６３ｂｐ到３＇端与λ载体接点共４９６９ｂｐＰＣＮＡ基因片段的核苷酸序列。将ＰＣＮＡ基因启动子核苷酸序列与ＤＮＡ聚合酶α,拓扑异构酶Ⅱα,胸苷酸激酶基因的启动子进行比较有３０％以上同源性,具有“看家基因”特征。在转录起始点的５＇上游几百ｂｐ的范围内都有与ＣＡＴ,ＳＰ１,Ｅ２Ｆ,ＮＦＨＢ,Ｏｃｔ１和ＡＴＦ等转录因子的结合位点相似的核苷酸序列。     

On some formulas in a partnership model from the perspective of a semi-Markov process

Many deterministic models of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as population models in general, contain elements of stochastic or statistical reasoning. An example of such a model is that of Dietz and Hadeler (1988) concerning sexually transmitted diseases in which there is partnership formation and dissolution. Among the interesting formulas in this paper, which enter into the analysis of the model, are those for the expected number of partners a male or female has during a lifetime. To a probabilist such formulas suggest the possibility that some stochastic process may be constructed so as to yield these formulas as well as others that may be of interest. The principal purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such a stochastic process does indeed exist in the form of a three state semi-Markov process in continuous time with stationary laws of evolution and with a one-step density matrix determined by four parameters which were interpreted as constant latent risk functions in the classical theory of competing risks. This construction of a semi-Markov process not only provides a framework for the systematic derivation of the formulas of Dietz and Hadeler but also suggests pathways,for extensions to the age-dependent case.This research was partially supported by NATO Grant D.890350     

Modelling the effect of treatment and behavioral change in HIV transmission dynamics

In this paper we analyze a model for the HIV-infection transmission in a male homosexual population. In the model we consider two types of infected individuals. Those that are infected but do not know their serological status and/or are not under any sort of clinical /therapeutical treatment, and those who are. The two groups of infectives differ in their incubation time, contact rate with susceptible individuals, and probability of disease transmission. The aim of this article is to study the roles played by detection and changes in sexual behavior in the incidence and prevalence of HIV. The analytical results show that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under a range of parameter values whenever a detection /treatment rate and an indirect measure of the level of infection risk are sufficiently large. However, any level of detection/ treatment rate coupled with a decrease of the transmission probability lowers the incidence rate and prevalence level in the population. In general, only significant reductions in the transmission probability (achieved through, for example, the adoption of safe sexual practices) can contain effectively the spread of the disease.     

温度对麦长管蚜种群存活率的特征参数的影响

在测定麦长管蚜种群存活率基础上,本提出反S型曲线模型来描述种群存活率,探讨了麦长管蚜种群存活率过程变化的特征参数,并得到不同的特征值．