Elimination of African Onchocerciasis: Modeling the Impact of Increasing the Frequency of Ivermectin Mass Treatment

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.     

Nutrient limitation and botanical diversity in wetlands: can fertilisation raise species richness?

The 'resource balance hypothesis' proposes that the species richness of grassland vegetation is potentially highest when the N:P ratio of plant tissues is 10–15 (co-limitation), so that species richness could be raised by fertilisation with N or P at sites with lower or higher N:P ratios, respectively. Here we use data from field surveys in Swiss, Dutch and American fens or wet grasslands to analyse what changes in N:P ratios might produce noticeable changes in species richness. Plant species numbers, above-ground biomass, tissue N and P concentrations and soil pH were recorded in plots of 0.06–4 m². In each data set, plots with intermediate tissue N:P ratios (6–20) were on average most species-rich, but N:P ratios explained only 5–37% of the variation in species richness. Moreover, these effects were partially confounded with those of vegetation biomass and/or soil pH. The unique effects of N:P ratios (excluding those shared with biomass and pH) explained 11–17% of variation in species richness. The relationship between species richness and N:P ratios was asymmetric: plots with high N:P ratios were more species-poor than those with low N:P ratios. This was paralleled by a smaller species pool size at high N:P ratios (estimated from species numbers in multiple records), suggesting that fewer species are adapted to P-limited conditions than to N-limited conditions. According to these data, species richness in wetlands may possibly be raised by P-fertilisation when the initial N:P ratio of the vegetation is well above 20, but this option is not recommended for nature conservation as it might promote common species at the expense of rare ones.     

Consistency and variation in kelp holdfast assemblages: Spatial patterns of biodiversity for the major phyla at different taxonomic resolutions

The focus of this study was to measure natural spatial variability in the biodiversity of fauna inhabiting kelp holdfasts in northeastern New Zealand at several spatial scales: from meters up to hundreds of kilometers. We wished to test the hypothesis that multivariate variation and biodiversity would vary significantly at different spatial scales in different ways for the major phyla in the holdfast community (Arthropoda, Annelida, Mollusca and Bryozoa). Biodiversity was considered in terms of richness, total abundance, structural composition (as measured by the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity measure) and taxonomic breadth for each major phylum and for the assemblage as a whole. We also examined the effect of taxonomic resolution on multivariate patterns. Species richness and total abundance increased with increases in holdfast volume. Multivariate variation was greatest at the smallest spatial scale for all phyla, but different phyla showed different patterns of multivariate variation at different spatial scales. Variations among locations at the largest spatial scale were primarily due to differences in the composition and richness of bryozoans and molluscs. Location effects became less and less distinct with decreases in taxonomic resolution. There were very few significant differences in richness or abundance for holdfasts of a given volume, taxonomic breadth did not vary significantly across locations, nor did the proportional abundances of phyla. These consistencies across large spatial scales in the absence of environmental impacts and results from other studies suggest that holdfast communities in New Zealand systems would provide a useful model assemblage against which future impacts may be detected as changes in proportions of component phyla. In addition, high variability detected at small and large scales at the species level, especially for bryozoans and molluscs, suggest that these communities may also provide unique opportunities for studying and understanding sources and functions of marine biodiversity.