Comparison of Methods for Estimating Bird Abundance and Trends From Historical Count Data

Abstract: The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches for estimating annual abundance or indices and population trends from point-count data. We compared indices of abundance estimated as annual means of counts and from a mixed-Poisson model to abundance estimates from a count-removal model with 3 time intervals and a distance model with 3 distance bands. We compared trend estimates calculated from an autoregressive, exponential model fit to annual abundance estimates from the above methods and also by estimating trend directly by treating year as a continuous covariate in the mixed-Poisson model. We produced estimates for 6 forest songbirds based on an average of 621 and 459 points in 2 physiographic areas from 1997 to 2004. There was strong evidence that detection probabilities varied among species and years. Nevertheless, there was good overall agreement across trend estimates from the 5 methods for 9 of 12 comparisons. In 3 of 12 comparisons, however, patterns in detection probabilities potentially confounded interpretation of uncorrected counts. Estimates of detection probabilities differed greatly between removal and distance models, likely because the methods estimated different components of detection probability and the data collection was not optimally designed for either method. Given that detection probabilities often vary among species, years, and observers investigators should address detection probability in their surveys, whether it be by estimation of probability of detection and abundance, estimation of effects of key covariates when modeling count as an index of abundance, or through design-based methods to standardize these effects.     

Effects of starvation and sucrose feeding on corpora allata of last instar larvae of Manduca sexta: in vitro activity, size, and cell number

Abstract Larvae of the tobacco hornworm moth Manduca sexta starved for the first 3 days of the last (fifth) stadium undergo a supernumerary moult. If they are provided with sucrose during the starvation period, they develop into normal pupae although pupation is delayed. The activities of the corpora allata (CA) from normal, starved, and sucrose fed larvae were followed through the fifth stadium with a radiochemical assay for Juvenile Hormone (JH) biosynthesis. An attempt was made to correlate CA-activity with CA cell number, size, and protein content.
In CA of normally fed larvae the rate of JH synthesis declined to undetectable levels by day 4 which was also the time of exposure of the dorsal vessel. In CA of starved larvae, the rate of JH synthesis at first decreased but began to increase on day 3 and reached a peak value by day 7 , at which time head capsule slippage occurred. In CA of sucrose fed larvae, the rate of biosynthesis declined as in normal larvae but the decline was extended over a longer period. Exposure of the dorsal vessel was delayed in the same manner and occurred on days 7–9. The major JH in all cases was JH-II.
The CA comprise c. 150 cells in the early fifth stadium, and this number remained constant during the fifth stadium in all three feeding regimens. In normal larvae, CA size and protein content increased several-fold during the stadium whereas in starved and sucrose-fed larvae they increased slowly and in agreement with the altered timing of developmental events. In none of the groups was the CA activity pattern correlated with morphometric changes of the CA. The rates of JH biosynthesis were not closely correlated with published JH titre curves. The in vivo mechanisms for regulation of JH production remain to be elucidated.