Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

The long-range outlook for the world’s ecosystems depends on the course taken by global development in the coming decades. Current global trends and ecological dynamics are consistent with very different outcomes, defined by alternative assumptions about the technological, economic, demographic, geopolitical, and social aspects of development and the ways in which institutions, personal and public values, and natural systems may be expected to respond to historically novel stressors. Recent advances in scenario analysis have addressed the dual methodological challenge of exploring these uncertainties in an organized way and determining what would be needed to make the transition to sustainability. This paper reviews global scenario research, setting current efforts in a historical context. It focuses on seven recent studies that are comprehensive, regionally disaggregated, and narratively rich—and thus of greatest relevance to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). It summarizes their social visions and the level of quantitative detail used in these exercises. Taken together, this suite of global scenario studies provides a useful platform for the MA by offering insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional pressures on ecosystems, sounding the alert on critical uncertainties that could undermine sustainable development, and understanding the importance of institutions and values. But these studies are only a point of departure. The integration of changing ecosystem conditions into global development scenarios, as both effects and causes, is at the cutting edge of scenario analysis. The paper concludes by identifying directions for this research program and suggesting ways that the MA can contribute to this effort.     

Headache.

Headache-prone patients have many highly effective therapeutic options open to them. Used only at the time of headache, sumatriptan succinate by mouth or injection and dihydroergotamine nasal spray are novel choices now or soon to be available. The original migraine therapy, ergotamine, is highly effective in its rectal suppository formulation, when used at a subnauseating dosage. Valproate sodium is the latest addition to the many therapies available for long-term stabilization.     

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.     

Direct protein detection with a nano-interdigitated array gate MOSFET

A new protein sensor is demonstrated by replacing the gate of a metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) with a nano-interdigitated array (nIDA). The sensor is able to detect the binding reaction of a typical antibody Ixodes ricinus immunosuppressor (anti-Iris) protein at a concentration lower than 1 ng/ml. The sensor exhibits a high selectivity and reproducible specific detection. We provide a simple model that describes the behavior of the sensor and explains the origin of its high sensitivity. The simulated and experimental results indicate that the drain current of nIDA-gate MOSFET sensor is significantly increased with the successive binding of the thiol layer, Iris and anti-Iris protein layers. It is found that the sensor detection limit can be improved by well optimizing the geometrical parameters of nIDA-gate MOSFET. This nanobiosensor, with real-time and label-free capabilities, can easily be used for the detection of other proteins, DNA, virus and cancer markers. Moreover, an on-chip associated electronics nearby the sensor can be integrated since its fabrication is compatible with complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) technology.     

Distinct molecular features of colorectal cancer in Ghana

Objectives: While colorectal cancer (CRC) is common, its incidence significantly varies around the globe. The incidence of CRC in West Africa is relatively low, but it has a distinctive clinical pattern and its molecular characteristics have not been studied. This study is one of the first attempts to analyze molecular, genetic, and pathological characteristics of colorectal cancer in Ghana. Methods: DNA was extracted from microdissected tumor and adjacent normal tissue of 90 paraffin blocks of CRC cases (1997–2007) collected at the University of Ghana. Microsatellite instability (MSI) was determined using fragment analysis of ten microsatellite markers. We analyzed expression of mismatch repair (MMR) proteins by immunohistochemistry and sequenced exons 2 and 3 of KRAS and exon 15 of BRAF. Results: MSI analysis showed 41% (29/70) MSI-High, 20% (14/70) MSI-Low, and 39% (27/70) microsatellite-stable (MSS) tumors. Sequencing of KRAS exons 2 and 3 identified activating mutations in 32% (24/75) of tumors, and sequencing of BRAF exon 15, the location of the common activating mutation (V600), did not show mutations at codons 599 and 600 in 88 tumors. Conclusions: Our study found a high frequency of MSI-High colorectal tumors (41%) in Ghana. While the frequency of KRAS mutations is comparable with other populations, absence of BRAF mutations is intriguing and would require further analysis of the molecular epidemiology of CRC in West Africa.     

Role of Ethylene Metabolism in Amaranthus retroflexus

¹⁴C-Ethylene was metabolized by etiolated pigweed seedlings (Amaranthus retroflexus L.) in the manner similar to that observed in other plants. The hormone was oxidized to ¹⁴CO₂ and incorporated into ¹⁴C-tissue components. Selected cyclic olefins with differing abilities to block ethylene action were used to determine if ethylene metabolism in pigweed is necessary for ethylene action. 2,5-Norbornadiene and 1,3-cyclohexadiene were effective inhibitors of ethylene action at 800 and 6400 microliters per liter, respectively, in the gas phase, while 1,4-cyclohexadiene and cyclohexene were not. However, all four cyclic olefins inhibited the incorporation and conversion of ¹⁴C-ethylene to ¹⁴CO₂ by 95% with I₅₀ values below 100 microliters per liter. The results indicate that total ethylene metabolism does not directly correlate with changes in ethylene action. Additionally, the fact that inhibition of ethylene metabolism by the cyclic olefins did not result in a corresponding increase in ethylene evolution indicates that ethylene metabolism does not serve to significantly reduce endogenous ethylene levels.     

Attenuation and smoothness of injected signals in a Rijlant network]

The V.C.G. methods must handle the E.K.G. information through weighing systems, because of the volume and the eccentric location of the heart in the chest, of the inhomogeneity of the surrounding tissues and of the irregular shape of the body surface. Most of these weighing systems use compensating networks. On the other hand, Rijlant simulates an homogeneous medium where the cardiac currents spread and where remote observation would eliminate much of the distorsions. In order to understand how such a simulated medium operates, we drive it by means of sinusoidal waves and we observe how the amplitude and the phase of the signals change when we switch on the different leads. Each value recorded at a same level in the network may be considered as the sum of a true proximity effect added to an other component depending upon the lead orientation. The latter is referred to a mixed result of the driving waves that we call "the modulus effect". From the injection level to the other levels, the proximity effect rapidly vanishes while the modulus effect does not disappear until grounded level is reached. The decrease of the modulus effect either to zero (grounded level) or to a finite value (free end of the network) is not expressed as a formula because Rijlant's network does not simulate an euclidian space. We conclude that, at least as the proximity effect is concerned, the instrument performs what it is expected to do.     

Culture-Independent Identification of Nontuberculous Mycobacteria in Cystic Fibrosis Respiratory Samples

Respiratory tract infections with nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are increasing in prevalence and are a significant cause of lung function decline in individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). NTM have been detected in culture-independent analyses of CF airway microbiota at lower rates than would be expected based on published prevalence data, likely due to poor lysing of the NTM cell wall during DNA extraction. We compared a standard bacterial lysis protocol with a modified method by measuring NTM DNA extraction by qPCR and NTM detection with bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The modified method improved NTM DNA recovery from spiked CF sputum samples by a mean of 0.53 log₁₀ copies/mL for M. abscessus complex and by a mean of 0.43 log₁₀ copies/mL for M. avium complex as measured by qPCR targeting the atpE gene. The modified method also improved DNA sequence based NTM detection in NTM culture-positive CF sputum and bronchoalveolar lavage samples; however, both qPCR and 16S rRNA gene sequencing remained less sensitive than culture for NTM detection. We highlight the limitations of culture-independent identification of NTM from CF respiratory samples, and illustrate how alterations in the bacterial lysis and DNA extraction process can be employed to improve NTM detection with both qPCR and 16S rRNA gene sequencing.