The Probabilities of Unique Events

Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama''s re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program) in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable.     

Oxidative stress responses in transgenic tobacco containing altered levels of glutathione reductase activity

A pea glutathione reductase cDNA was expressed in tobacco. Three classes of construct were used which gave a range of elevated levels of glutathione reductase (GR) activity in the cytosol (GR32), chloroplasts (GR36), or in both chloroplasts and mitochondria (GR46). In some transgenic progeny (T₂) from self-fertilized GR32 and GR36 primary transformants, having approximately twofold elevation of GR activity as compared with recessive siblings, there was an amelioration of the effect on leaf discs of up to 15 µM paraquat. However, lines with similarly elevated levels of GR activity showed no decreased sensitivity to the herbicide. None of the GR32 and GR36 lines was less sensitive to ozone. Conversely, T₂ progeny of GR46 lines, with greater than 4.5-fold elevations of GR activity, showed no reduced sensitivity to paraquat but two out of four of these lines were less sensitive to ozone fumigation. The differential response to stress co-segregated with the presence of the transgene but there was no relationship between the degree of stress response and the level of GR activity. There was an elevation in the total glutathione pool in all lines showing increased GR activity but there was no change in the ratio of oxidized to reduced glutathione. These results demonstrate that the mechanisms of protection against ozone and paraquat are different although both can be mediated by elevated GR activity.     

Validation of radiocarpal joint contact models based on images from a clinical MRI scanner

This study was undertaken to assess magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiocarpal surface contact models of functional loading in a clinical MRI scanner for future in vivo studies, by comparison with experimental measures from three cadaver forearm specimens. Experimental data were acquired using a Tekscan sensor during simulated light grasp. Magnetic resonance (MR) images were used to obtain model geometry and kinematics (image registration). Peak contact pressures (PPs) and average contact pressures (APs), contact forces and contact areas were determined in the radiolunate and radioscaphoid joints. Contact area was also measured directly from MR images acquired with load and compared with model data. Based on the validation criteria (within 25% of experimental data), out of the six articulations (three specimens with two articulations each), two met the criterion for AP (0%, 14%); one for peak pressure (20%); one for contact force (5%); four for contact area with respect to experiment (8%, 13%, 19% and 23%), and three contact areas met the criterion with respect to direct measurements (14%, 21% and 21%). Absolute differences between model and experimental PPs were reasonably low (within 2.5 MPa). Overall, the results indicate that MRI-based models generated from 3T clinical MR scanner appear sufficient to obtain clinically relevant data.     

Combining Motion Analysis and Microfluidics – A Novel Approach for Detecting Whole-Animal Responses to Test Substances

Small, early life stages, such as zebrafish embryos are increasingly used to assess the biological effects of chemical compounds in vivo. However, behavioural screens of such organisms are challenging in terms of both data collection (culture techniques, drug delivery and imaging) and data evaluation (very large data sets), restricting the use of high throughput systems compared to in vitro assays. Here, we combine the use of a microfluidic flow-through culture system, or BioWell plate, with a novel motion analysis technique, (sparse optic flow - SOF) followed by spectral analysis (discrete Fourier transformation - DFT), as a first step towards automating data extraction and analysis for such screenings. Replicate zebrafish embryos housed in a BioWell plate within a custom-built imaging system were subject to a chemical exposure (1.5% ethanol). Embryo movement was videoed before (30 min), during (60 min) and after (60 min) exposure and SOF was then used to extract data on movement (angles of rotation and angular changes to the centre of mass of embryos). DFT was subsequently used to quantify the movement patterns exhibited during these periods and Multidimensional Scaling and ANOSIM were used to test for differences. Motion analysis revealed that zebrafish had significantly altered movements during both the second half of the alcohol exposure period and also the second half of the recovery period compared to their pre-treatment movements. Manual quantification of tail flicking revealed the same differences between exposure-periods as detected using the automated approach. However, the automated approach also incorporates other movements visible in the organism such as blood flow and heart beat, and has greater power to discern environmentally-driven changes in the behaviour and physiology of organisms. We suggest that combining these technologies could provide a highly efficient, high throughput assay, for assessing whole embryo responses to various drugs and chemicals.