The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella upon first exposure and may reactivate later in life into herpes zoster (HZ), with a risk that is thought to be reduced by re-exposures to VZV. Given the decades-long time scales of reactivation and its dependence on the accumulation of re-exposure episodes, adopting a long-term perspective may be useful to correctly interpret current epidemiological trends of VZV. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of demographic changes on varicella and HZ in Spain, using an age-structured mathematical model informed with historical demographic data and calibrated against age-specific profiles of varicella seroprevalence and HZ incidence data. The model qualitatively reproduces the remarkable growth of HZ incidence observed in Spain between 1997 and 2004, before the introduction of varicella vaccination programmes. We demonstrate that this growth may be partially ascribed to the reduction of varicella circulation that followed the overall decline of the birth rate in the twentieth century. Model predictions further suggest that, even under the most optimistic projections, HZ incidence will continue its rise until at least 2040. Considering the effect of demographic changes can help interpreting variations in epidemiological trends of HZ, contributing to a more accurate evaluation of vaccination programmes against VZV.     

Asymptotic distributions of kappa statistics and their differences with many raters,many rating categories and two conditions

In clinical research and in more general classification problems, a frequent concern is the reliability of a rating system. In the absence of a gold standard, agreement may be considered as an indication of reliability. When dealing with categorical data, the well‐known kappa statistic is often used to measure agreement. The aim of this paper is to obtain a theoretical result about the asymptotic distribution of the kappa statistic with multiple items, multiple raters, multiple conditions, and multiple rating categories (more than two), based on recent work. The result settles a long lasting quest for the asymptotic variance of the kappa statistic in this situation and allows for the construction of asymptotic confidence intervals. A recent application to clinical endoscopy and to the diagnosis of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) is shortly presented to complement the theoretical perspective.     

Weather-Related Flood and Landslide Damage: A Risk Index for Italian Regions

The frequency of natural hazards has been increasing in the last decades in Europe and specifically in Mediterranean regions due to climate change. For example heavy precipitation events can lead to disasters through the interaction with exposed and vulnerable people and natural systems. It is therefore necessary a prevention planning to preserve human health and to reduce economic losses. Prevention should mainly be carried out with more adequate land management, also supported by the development of an appropriate risk prediction tool based on weather forecasts. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between weather types (WTs) and the frequency of floods and landslides that have caused damage to properties, personal injuries, or deaths in the Italian regions over recent decades. In particular, a specific risk index (WT-FLARI) for each WT was developed at national and regional scale. This study has identified a specific risk index associated with each weather type, calibrated for each Italian region and applicable to both annual and seasonal levels. The risk index represents the seasonal and annual vulnerability of each Italian region and indicates that additional preventive actions are necessary for some regions. The results of this study represent a good starting point towards the development of a tool to support policy-makers, local authorities and health agencies in planning actions, mainly in the medium to long term, aimed at the weather damage reduction that represents an important issue of the World Meteorological Organization mission.     

Inverted meiosis and the evolution of sex by loss of complementation

Inverted meiosis, in which sister chromatids segregate before homologous chromosomes, is a common aberration of conventional meiosis (in which sister chromatids segregate after homologous chromosomes) and is routinely observed in certain species. This raises an evolutionary mystery: what is the adaptive advantage of the more common, conventional order of segregation in meiosis? I use a population genetic model to show that asexual mutants arising from inverted meiosis are relatively immune from the deleterious effects of loss of complementation (heterozygosity), unlike the asexual mutants arising from conventional meiosis, in which loss of complementation can outweigh the two‐fold cost of meiosis. Hence, asexual reproduction can replace sexual reproduction with inverted meiosis, but not with conventional meiosis. The results are in line with analogous considerations on other alternative types of reproduction and support the idea that amphimixis is stable in spite of the two‐fold cost of meiosis because loss of complementation in mutant asexuals outweigh the two‐fold cost.     

Integrated analyses of litho- and biofacies in a Pliocene cyclothemic, alluvial to shallow marine succession (Tuscany, Italy)

Lithofacies analysis of the upper part of the Pliocene succession of the Valdelsa basin (central Italy) unravelled a number of depositional environments, ranging from alluvial plain to coastal, to marine. Strata are arranged in a hierarchy of elementary and composite unconformity-bounded units. A palaeoecological study of macro- (molluscs) and microfossils (pollen, dinocysts, foraminifera) allowed to finely reconstruct sub-environments within fine-grained terrestrial, coastal and marine deposits and thence to track the spatial and temporal change of physical conditions. The stacking pattern of sedimentary units highlights the lateral switching of onshore-offshore gradients and documents relative sea-level changes. These units are interpreted in a sequence stratigraphic framework. Elementary depositional sequences are arranged to form six composite depositional sequences, in turn encased within two major synthems. This hierarchy of unconformity-bounded sedimentary units suggests that sea-level variation has occurred at different time-frequencies. Glacio-eustasy and active tectonism are discussed as the main forcing factors regulating the different scales of sedimentary cyclicity.