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1.

Background

Accurately predicting the probability of a live birth after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) is important for patients, healthcare providers and policy makers. Two prediction models (Templeton and IVFpredict) have been previously developed from UK data and are widely used internationally. The more recent of these, IVFpredict, was shown to have greater predictive power in the development dataset. The aim of this study was external validation of the two models and comparison of their predictive ability.

Methods and Findings

130,960 IVF cycles undertaken in the UK in 2008–2010 were used to validate and compare the Templeton and IVFpredict models. Discriminatory power was calculated using the area under the receiver-operator curve and calibration assessed using a calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The scaled modified Brier score, with measures of reliability and resolution, were calculated to assess overall accuracy. Both models were compared after updating for current live birth rates to ensure that the average observed and predicted live birth rates were equal. The discriminative power of both methods was comparable: the area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.628 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.625–0.631) for IVFpredict and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.613–0.620) for the Templeton model. IVFpredict had markedly better calibration and higher diagnostic accuracy, with calibration plot intercept of 0.040 (95% CI: 0.017–0.063) and slope of 0.932 (95% CI: 0.839–1.025) compared with 0.080 (95% CI: 0.044–0.117) and 1.419 (95% CI: 1.149–1.690) for the Templeton model. Both models underestimated the live birth rate, but this was particularly marked in the Templeton model. Updating the models to reflect improvements in live birth rates since the models were developed enhanced their performance, but IVFpredict remained superior.

Conclusion

External validation in a large population cohort confirms IVFpredict has superior discrimination and calibration for informing patients, clinicians and healthcare policy makers of the probability of live birth following IVF.  相似文献   
2.

Background

Previous studies have reported an inverse association between vitamin D and childhood dental caries, but whether this is causal is unclear.

Objective

To determine the causal effect of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration on dental caries experience, early caries onset and the requirement for a dental general anesthetic.

Design

A Mendelian randomization study was undertaken, using genetic variants known to be associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in 5,545 European origin children from the South West of England. Data on caries and related characteristics were obtained from parental and child completed questionnaires between 38 and 91 months and clinical assessments in a random 10% sample at 31, 44 and 61 months.

Results

In multivariable confounder adjusted analyses no strong evidence for an association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D with caries experience or severity was found but there was evidence for an association with early caries onset, or having a general anesthetic for dental problems. In Mendelian randomization analysis the odds ratio for caries experience per 10 nmol/L increase in 25-hydroxyvitamin D was 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 1.05; P = 0.26) and the odds ratio for dental general anaesthetic per 10 nmol/L increase in 25-hydroxyvitamin D was 0.96 (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 1.22; P = 0.72).

Conclusions

This Mendelian randomization study provides little evidence to support an inverse causal effect of 25-hydroxyvitamin D on dental caries. However, the estimates are imprecise and a larger study is required to refine these analyses.  相似文献   
3.

Introduction

Emergency departments see an increase in cases during cyclones. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations to the Emergency Department (ED) of a tertiary level hospital (Townsville) following a tropical cyclone (Yasi). Specific areas of focus include changes in: patient demographics (age and gender), triage categories, and classification of diseases.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Townsville Hospitals ED information system (EDIS) for three periods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to coincide with formation of Cyclone Yasi (31 January 2011) to six days after Yasi crossed the coast line (8 February 2012). The analysis explored the changes in ICD10-AM 4-character classification and presented at the Chapter level.

Results

There was a marked increase in the number of patients attending the ED during Yasi, particularly those aged over 65 years with a maximum daily attendance of 372 patients on 4 Feb 2011. The most marked increases were in: Triage categories - 4 and 5; and ICD categories - diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99), and factors influencing health care status (Z00-Z99). The most common diagnostic presentation across all years was injury (S00-T98).

Discussion

There was an increase in presentations to the ED of TTH, which peaked in the first 24 – 48 hours following the cyclone and returned to normal over a five-day period. The changes in presentations were mostly an amplification of normal attendance patterns with some altered areas of activity. Injury patterns are similar to overseas experience.  相似文献   
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Delayed germination and dispersal in desert annuals: Escape in space and time   总被引:19,自引:0,他引:19  
Summary A model is developed to consider the interplay between dispersibility and delayed germination in desert annuals. The model explores the effect of low levels of dispersal, considered realistic for annual plants, on optimal germination fraction. The model also demonstrates the effect of the amount and accuracy of predictive (responsive to the environment) dormancy on the optimal innate germination fraction (not responsive to environmental conditions).Optimal germination fraction is found to be very sensitive to changes in despersibility especially at the limited dispersibilities that are realistic for annual plants. As dispersibility increases, optimal germination fraction increases. If plants make two kinds of seeds with differing despersibility, reproduction is maximized if the low dispersal seeds have delayed germination and the high dispersal seeds have quick germination. If dormancy mechanisms permit seeds to germinate when environmental conditions allow successful maturation, and remain dormant when environmental conditions do not permit successful maturation, what fraction of seeds should remain dormant under predicted good conditions as a hedge against inaccurate prediction of the environment? If environmental cues that break dormancy are uncorrelated with environmental conditions that permit successful maturation, predictive dormancy has little or no effect on the optimal innate germination fraction. When predictive dormancy lowers the probability of germinating when environmental conditions preclude successful maturation, the optimal innate germination fraction increases with increasing germination control by predictive dormancy. With a moderate degree of germination control by predictive dormancy, the optimal innate dormancy is still sensitive to changes in dispersal in the low dispersal ranges characteristic of annual plants.Evidence is presented from plant species that have both dispersal and germination dimorphisms to support the predicted correlation of high germination fractions with high dispersal.  相似文献   
8.
ObjectiveTo investigate the association between birth weight of offspring and mothers'' insulin resistance in late adulthood.DesignCross sectional survey.SettingGeneral practitioner''s surgeries in 23 towns in Great Britain.Participants4286 women aged 60-79 years.ResultsBirth weight of offspring was inversely related to maternal insulin resistance in late adulthood. For each 1 kg higher birth weight of offspring, women had a 15% reduction in the odds of being in the fourth with highest insulin resistance, compared to other fourths (odds ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.00). This increased to 27% (0.73; 0.60 to 0.90) after adjusting data for potential confounders. A U shaped relation between birth weight of offspring and diabetes in older age was found; women with the lightest and heaviest offspring had the highest prevalence of diabetes.ConclusionsBirth weight of offspring is inversely related to the mother''s insulin resistance in late adulthood, despite the association of glucose intolerance during pregnancy with heavier offspring at birth. Common genetic factors contribute to the relation between birth weight and risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in adults.

What is already known on this topic

Small birth weight is related to increased risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in adulthood; the underlying mechanisms are unclearSmall birth weight of offspring is related to parental cardiovascular disease, suggesting that common genetic factors affect birth weight and the risk of disease in adulthoodGenetic factors associated with the metabolism of insulin are plausible in linking birth weight and cardiovascular disease (the fetal insulin hypothesis)

What this study adds

Birth weight of offspring is inversely related to maternal insulin resistance in older ageGenetic factors related to both insulin resistance and birth weight explain at least part of the association between birth weight and risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in adulthood  相似文献   
9.
Designed dimeric gallotannin analogues featuring two tetragalloylglucopyranose cores connected by various hydrocarbon linkers inhibit tumor necrosis factor-alpha secretion from lipopolysaccharide-stimulated human peripheral blood mononuclear cells by up to 53% (5-24 microM concentration range) compared to control. Comparable suppression of tumor necrosis factor-alpha levels (approximately 50% vs control) was observed in the plasma of rats co-treated with lipopolysaccharide and specific tannin analogues selected for their lack of interleukin 1-beta stimulating activity.  相似文献   
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