The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends.     

Studies on the frequency and associations of equine leucocyte antigens in sarcoid and summer dermatitis

The equine leucocyte antigen (ELA) types and the clinical diagnosis for equine sarcoid and summer dermatitis were evaluated in 2026 horses representing five breeds. Data were analysed in unrelated animals and in family material. In the case of equine sarcoid, a strong association was observed between the ELA class II DW13 antigen and its effect on Swiss (cP < 0·001), French (cP < 0·0001) and Irish (cP < 0·01) Warmblood horses. The class I antigen A3 occurred more frequently in sarcoid-affected French horses (cP < 0·001). These results confirm our earlier findings (Gerber et al. 1988). Among Freiberger horses, which lack the ELA DW13 and A3 specificities, a breed-specific class I antigen, ABe108, displayed an increased frequency (cP < 0·05) in the affected group. Among Arabian horses, a tendency for increased frequency of the A1 antigen was observed in the affected animals, but the number of affected horses is too small for statistical significance. The Mendelian segregation in diseased half-siblings by ELA DW13 heterozygous stallions showed a strong association (P < 0·0001) between the inherited DW13 antigen and susceptibility to the sarcoid effect. In the case of summer dermatitis, previously published data (Marti et al. 1992) have been extended. The ELA types in four multiple-case families, founded by the same stallion, were analysed for an association with the effect of sarcoid. Eight out of nine ELA-typed affected offspring inherited the paternal haplotype A15, DW23 in contrast to nonaffected offspring where three out of 12 displayed these antigens (P < 0·005). Moreover, the ELA haplotypes of 11 out of 12 informative affected half-siblings sired by another stallion inherited the paternal haplotype A3, W12, DW23 (P < 0·05). Our findings demonstrate statistically significant associations between certain ELA antigens and two equine diseases. It is still unknown if the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules themselves or another linked gene(s) play a role in the pathogenesis of these conditions.     

Preadolescents’ relationships with pet dogs: Relationship continuity and associations with adjustment

Research on human–animal interaction in children has been studied in isolation rather than integrated with core theories of children’s relationships. This study is one of the first to examine how children’s relationships with pet dogs are related to their human relationships (parent–child attachments, friendships) and to child adjustment, and to include observational assessment of children’s interactions with their pet dog. Children (9 to 11 years old, n = 99) completed questionnaires regarding relationships with pet dogs, parents, and friends. Half the children were observed interacting with their pet dog. Children and teachers reported children’s adjustment. Children who felt closer to their dogs were more securely attached to mothers and fathers and reported more positive qualities and less conflict with friends. Children with more secure attachments to mothers, and greater companionship with dogs, interacted more with their dogs. Parental attachment and friendship quality, but not the pet dog relationship, were related to child adjustment.     

DNA sequence analysis of serologically detected ELA class II haplotypes at the equine DQP locus

The genetic diversity at the ELA DQβ locus was investigated using polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. Based upon serological methods 16 class II homozygous animals were selected and their genomic DNA was used. A DQβ gene from an equine cDNA library was also sequenced. Our methology and the similarity between the genomic and the cDNA sequences suggest that the studied locus is expressed on equine lymphocytes. In the predicted amino acid sequence the most extensive variation is located at residues 56–60. The pattern of these five amino acids is strongly correlated to the serological ELA class II specificities (W13, W22, W23, Be200). The alleles corresponding to the W23 specificity are the most divergent among the equine DQβ alleles and also from other mammalian DQβ sequences.     

A Mathematical Framework for Combining Decisions of Multiple Experts toward Accurate and Remote Diagnosis of Malaria Using Tele-Microscopy

We propose a methodology for digitally fusing diagnostic decisions made by multiple medical experts in order to improve accuracy of diagnosis. Toward this goal, we report an experimental study involving nine experts, where each one was given more than 8,000 digital microscopic images of individual human red blood cells and asked to identify malaria infected cells. The results of this experiment reveal that even highly trained medical experts are not always self-consistent in their diagnostic decisions and that there exists a fair level of disagreement among experts, even for binary decisions (i.e., infected vs. uninfected). To tackle this general medical diagnosis problem, we propose a probabilistic algorithm to fuse the decisions made by trained medical experts to robustly achieve higher levels of accuracy when compared to individual experts making such decisions. By modelling the decisions of experts as a three component mixture model and solving for the underlying parameters using the Expectation Maximisation algorithm, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach which significantly improves the overall diagnostic accuracy of malaria infected cells. Additionally, we present a mathematical framework for performing ‘slide-level’ diagnosis by using individual ‘cell-level’ diagnosis data, shedding more light on the statistical rules that should govern the routine practice in examination of e.g., thin blood smear samples. This framework could be generalized for various other tele-pathology needs, and can be used by trained experts within an efficient tele-medicine platform.     

Trace elements in rock salt and their bioavailability estimated from solubility in acid

In this study, 18 partly commercially available samples of rock salt from Austria, Germany, Pakistan, Poland, Switzerland, and Ukraine were investigated with respect to their content of trace elements using instrumental neutron activation analysis. Elements detected were Al, Ba, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, La, Mn, Na, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Sr, Ta, Tb, Th, and Zn, some of them only in individual cases. An estimation of the bioavailability of these trace elements was performed by dissolving an equivalent of the sodium chloride samples in diluted hydrochloric acid (simulating stomach acid), filtering off the insoluble components, and analyzing the evaporated filtrate. It could be shown that in most cases bioactive trace elements like Fe can be found in rock salt in the form of almost insoluble compounds and are therefore not significantly bioavailable, whereas thorium, for example, was partly bioavailable in two cases. A significant contribution to the recommended daily intake of metal trace elements by using rock salt for nutrition can be excluded.     

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.