Molecular data and species distribution models reveal the Pleistocene history of the mayfly Ameletus inopinatus (Ephemeroptera: Siphlonuridae)1

1. We investigated the Pleistocene and Holocene history of the rare mayfly Ameletus inopinatus EATON 1887 (Ephemeroptera: Siphlonuridae) in Europe. We used A. inopinatus as a model species to explore the phylogeography of montane, cold‐tolerant aquatic insects with arctic–alpine distributions. 2. Using species distribution models, we developed hypotheses about the species demographic history in Central Europe and the recolonisation history of Fennoscandia. We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) sequence data and compared our genetic results with previously generated microsatellite data to explore genetic diversity distributions of A. inopinatus. 3. We observed old lineages, deep splits and almost complete lineage sorting of mtCOI sequences among mountain ranges. These results support a periglacial survival, i.e. persistence at the periphery of Pleistocene glaciers in Central Europe. 4. There was strong differentiation between the Fennoscandian and all other populations, indicating that Fennoscandia was recolonised from a refugium not accounted for in our sampling. High degrees of population genetic structure within the northern samples suggest that Fennoscandia was recolonised by more than one lineage. However, this structure was not apparent in previously published microsatellite data, consistent with secondary contact without sexual incompatibility or with sex‐biased dispersal. 5. Our demographic analyses indicate that (i) the separation of northern and Central European lineages occurred during the early Pleistocene; (ii) Central European populations have persisted independently throughout the Pleistocene and (iii) the species extended its range about 150 000 years ago.     

Biotic interactions may overrule direct climate effects on spring phytoplankton dynamics

To improve our mechanistic understanding and predictive capacities with respect to climate change effects on the spring phytoplankton bloom in temperate marine systems, we used a process‐driven dynamical model to disentangle the impact of potentially relevant factors which are often correlated in the field. The model was based on comprehensive indoor mesocosm experiments run at four temperature and three light regimes. It was driven by time‐series of water temperature and irradiance, considered edible and less edible phytoplankton separately, and accounted for density‐dependent grazing losses. It successfully reproduced the observed dynamics of well edible phytoplankton in the different temperature and light treatments. Four major factors influenced spring phytoplankton dynamics: temperature, light (cloudiness), grazing, and the success of overwintering phyto‐ and zooplankton providing the starting biomasses for spring growth. Our study predicts that increasing cloudiness as anticipated for warmer winters for the Baltic Sea region will retard phytoplankton net growth and reduce peak heights. Light had a strong direct effect in contrast to temperature. However, edible phytoplankton was indirectly strongly temperature‐sensitive via grazing which was already important in early spring at moderately high algal biomasses and counter‐intuitively provoked lower and later algal peaks at higher temperatures. Initial phyto‐ and zooplankton composition and biomass also had a strong effect on spring algal dynamics indicating a memory effect via the broadly under‐sampled overwintering plankton community. Unexpectedly, increased initial phytoplankton biomass did not necessarily lead to earlier or higher spring blooms since the effect was counteracted by subsequently enhanced grazing. Increasing temperature will likely exhibit complex indirect effects via changes in overwintering phytoplankton and grazer biomasses and current grazing pressure. Additionally, effects on the phytoplankton composition due to the species‐specific susceptibility to grazing are expected. Hence, we need to consider not only direct but also indirect effects, e.g. biotic interactions, when addressing climate change impacts.     

Historical stability of diversity patterns in African estrildid finches (Aves: Estrildidae)?

Studying shifts in species diversity through time and space is an essential component of many aspects of biogeography and ecology. In this study, we predict the potential distribution of 61 species of African estrildid finches in order to assess current and past diversity patterns. Models were projected onto two climatic scenarios (Community Climate System Model, CCSM, and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC) representing past climate conditions, as might be expected during the Last Glacial Maximum 21 000 years BP. Subsequent overlays of the resulting potential distributions were conducted under different dispersal assumptions and compared with expert maps. Our results suggest highly similar current distribution patterns obtained by both methods. Projections onto Pleistocene scenarios showed similar patterns, with only small differences under limited and unlimited dispersal assumptions. Looking separately at diversity patterns predicted for forest and savannah species, diversity hot spots of forest species under MIROC conditions were consistent with suggested forest refugia, but were inconsistent under CCSM conditions. According to our models, savannah species were more widely distributed during the cooler and drier conditions of the Pleistocene. By using ecological niche models we show that current diversity patterns of a whole species group may have changed only slightly since the Pleistocene, suggesting a pattern of general spatial stability. However, we emphasize the importance of using different climatic scenarios as well as including the supposed dispersal of organisms in the modelling, as these factors influence results on a broad scale. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102 , 455–470.     

Lack of photosynthetic or stomatal regulation after 9 years of elevated [CO2] and 4 years of soil warming in two conifer species at the alpine treeline

Alpine treelines are temperature‐limited vegetation boundaries. Understanding the effects of elevated [CO₂] and warming on CO₂ and H₂O gas exchange may help predict responses of treelines to global change. We measured needle gas exchange of Larix decidua Mill. and Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata DC trees after 9 years of free air CO₂ enrichment (575 µmol mol^?1) and 4 years of soil warming (+4 °C) and analysed δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values of needles and tree rings. Tree needles under elevated [CO₂] showed neither nitrogen limitation nor end‐product inhibition, and no down‐regulation of maximal photosynthetic rate (A_max) was found. Both tree species showed increased net photosynthetic rates (A_n) under elevated [CO₂] (L. decidua: +39%; P. mugo: +35%). Stomatal conductance (g_H2O) was insensitive to changes in [CO₂], thus transpiration rates remained unchanged and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) increased due to higher A_n. Soil warming affected neither A_n nor g_H2O. Unresponsiveness of g_H2O to [CO₂] and warming was confirmed by δ¹⁸O needle and tree ring values. Consequently, under sufficient water supply, elevated [CO₂] induced sustained enhancement in A_n and lead to increased C inputs into this ecosystem, while soil warming hardly affected gas exchange of L. decidua and P. mugo at the alpine treeline.     

Physiological response of the copepod Pseudocalanus sp. in the Baltic Sea at different thermal scenarios

We studied the physiological response of Pseudocalanus sp. under four different temperature elevation regimes: +0, +2, +4 and +6 °C above the decadal average temperature in the Western Baltic Sea. We measured fecal pellet (FP) production rates, which was taken as a proxy of ingestion, egg production (EPR) and respiration rates. Experiments lasted from mid‐February to end April, corresponding most of the observations to the postspring bloom phase. We combined small scale incubations with the use of big (ca. 1400 L) mesocosms, which have previously been shown to be appropriate when studying phyto‐ and zooplankton succession, and the water used for the incubations was taken from the mesocosm tanks. Given that the phytoplankton succession varied between the four thermal scenarios, we evaluated (excepting in the case of the respiration rates, where incubations were carried out using 0.2 μm filtered water) both the temperature and the associated food concentration effects. Respiration and ingestion rates were found to increase with temperature. As for EPR, they also increased with temperature during the bloom, but remained at low and constant values during the postbloom in all the four treatments due to the food limitation. Linked to the temperature rise, we also detected an increase in instantaneous mortality rates and a reduction in the net growth efficiency. Finally, we discuss the potential implications of our findings for the spring phyto‐ and zooplankton succession under the forecasted climate warming, as well as for the fisheries in the Baltic Sea, where Pseudocalanus sp. is a key species.