Statistical Inference Methods for Two Crossing Survival Curves: A Comparison of Methods

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér—von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.     

The Combined Effects of Moss-Dominated Biocrusts and Vegetation on Erosion and Soil Moisture and Implications for Disturbance on the Loess Plateau,China

Biological soil crusts (BSCs, or biocrusts) have important positive ecological functions such as erosion control and soil fertility improvement, and they may also have negative effects on soil moisture in some cases. Simultaneous discussions of the two-sided impacts of BSCs are key to the rational use of this resource. This study focused on the contribution of BSCs while combining with specific types of vegetation to erosion reduction and their effects on soil moisture, and it addressed the feasibility of removal or raking disturbance. Twelve plots measuring 4 m × 2 m and six treatments (two plots for each) were established on a 15° slope in a small watershed in the Loess Plateau using BSCs, bare land (as a control, BL), Stipa bungeana Trin. (STBU), Caragana korshinskii Kom. (CAKO), STBU planted with BSCs (STBU+BSCs) and CAKO planted with BSCs (CAKO+BSCs). The runoff, soil loss and soil moisture to a depth of 3 m were measured throughout the rainy season (from June to September) of 2010. The results showed that BSCs significantly reduced runoff by 37.3% and soil loss by 81.0% and increased infiltration by 12.4% in comparison with BL. However, when combined with STBU or CAKO, BSCs only made negligible contributions to erosion control (a runoff reduction of 7.4% and 5.7% and a soil loss reduction of 0.7% and 0.3%). Generally, the soil moisture of the vegetation plots was lower in the upper layer than that of the BL plots, although when accompanied with a higher amount of infiltration, this soil moisture consumption phenomenon was much clearer when combining vegetation with BSCs. Because of the trivial contributions from BSCs to erosion control and the remaining exacerbated consumption of soil water, moderate disturbance by BSCs should be considered in plots with adequate vegetation cover to improve soil moisture levels without a significant erosion increase, which was implied to be necessary and feasible.     

Phylogenetic diversity is a better predictor of wetland community resistance to Alternanthera philoxeroides invasion than species richness

• Highly biodiversity communities have been shown to better resist plant invasions through complementarity effects. Species richness (SR) is a widely used biodiversity metric but lacks explanatory power when there are only a few species. Communities with low SR can have a wide variety of phylogenetic diversities (PD), which might allow for a better prediction of invasibility.
• We assessed the effect of diversity reduction of a wetland community assemblage typical of the Beijing area on biotic resistance to invasion of the exotic weed Alternanthera philoxeroides and compared the reduction in SR and PD in predicting community invasibility.
• The eight studied resident species performed similarly when grown alone and when grown in eight‐species communities together with the invasive A. philoxeroides. Variation partitioning showed that PD contributed more to variation in both A. philoxeroides traits and community indicators than SR. All A. philoxeroides traits and community indicators, except for evenness index, showed a linear relationship with PD. However, only stem length of A. philoxeroides differed between the one‐ and two‐species treatments, and the diversity index of the communities differed between the one‐ and two‐species treatments and between the one‐ and four‐species treatments.
• Our results showed that in natural or semi‐natural wetlands with relatively low SR, PD may be a better predictor of invasibility than SR. When designing management strategies for mitigating A. philoxeroides invasion, deliberately raising PD is expected to be more efficient than simply increasing species number.

     

Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number in Peripheral Blood and Melanoma Risk

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number in peripheral blood has been suggested as risk modifier in various types of cancer. However, its influence on melanoma risk is unclear. We evaluated the association between mtDNA copy number in peripheral blood and melanoma risk in 500 melanoma cases and 500 healthy controls from an ongoing melanoma study. The mtDNA copy number was measured using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Overall, mean mtDNA copy number was significantly higher in cases than in controls (1.15 vs 0.99, P<0.001). Increased mtDNA copy number was associated with a 1.45-fold increased risk of melanoma (95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.97). Significant joint effects between mtDNA copy number and variables related to pigmentation and history of sunlight exposure were observed. This study supports an association between increased mtDNA copy number and melanoma risk that is independent on the known melanoma risk factors (pigmentation and history of sunlight exposure).     

Using Geneswitch technolgy to teach sex differentiation for undergraduates

The development and evaluation of a two-session laboratory class, based on Geneswitch technology and sex determination in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, is described. Geneswitch system allows conditional control of gene expression. A laboratory exercise has been devised for sophomores in order to illustrate how Geneswitch technology can be used to conditionally over-express the key sex determination gene transformer (tra) during development, and how this inhibits sexual differentiation in males, resulting in a lack of much of the external genitalia and a reduction in the size of the sex combs. The protocol is inexpensive and straightforward, at the meantime gives students a good understanding of how molecular biology technologies can change biological processes including development.     

Theoretical calculation of the sugar concentrations during enzymatic production of fructooligosaccharides

Summary In a batch production of fructooligosaccharides from sucrose, the concentrations of residual sucrose, glucose and fructooligosaccharides at a given reaction time(t) and initial sucrose concentration(S₀) were theoretically calculated by the following correlation equations: Glucose(t) = 0.0653 S₀ × ln(t); Fructooligosaccharides(t) = 0.1636 S₀ × ln(t); Sucrose(t)=S₀ - Glucose(t) + FOS(t).     

基于多尺度协同的长沙市生态网络构建与层级优化

城市化背景下人类与自然环境的矛盾呈现出多尺度、层级化特征，而传统生态网络的构建方式较少考虑不同尺度下生态要素的关系，无法从区域落实到中心城区，难以形成系统性的解决方案。研究在综合梳理各尺度生态网络构建方法的基础上，以长沙市为例，基于形态学空间格局分析（Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis，MSPA）、景观连通性原理和生态斑块重要性评价识别生态源地，并通过多层级生态阻力面的确定，综合运用最小费用路径（Least-cost path method，LCP）、电路理论、层级传导理论、尺度嵌套等方法对市域、都市区、中心城区的生态网络进行了协同构建和层级优化，最后基于不同尺度生态网络的特点应用并落实到多层级的国土空间规划体系中。研究结果表明：（1）长沙市域生态网络和都市区生态网络具有较好的层级嵌套特征；共识别两尺度生态叠合源地14个、生态叠合廊道15条，主要通过中心城区内的湘江、浏阳河和捞刀河部分河段与外围生态绿圈相衔接，形成"外环内楔"的空间格局。（2）确定市域重要廊道、市域潜在廊道、生态叠合廊道、都市区重要廊道、都市区潜在廊道的核心保护面积共501.14 km²，并提取位于生态廊道核心保护区范围内的生态夹点和生态障碍点，以进一步落实生态保护修复策略。（3）得到具有重要生态连通功能的中心城区生态绿道长度441.2 km，生态修复单元56个，并结合生态阻力值划分为5级进行针对性修复。（4）基于不同尺度生态网络的衔接、嵌套，最终构建"市域总体生态安全格局-都市区城市生态空间发展格局-以城市绿道为基础的中心城区生态修复单元"，并与不同层级的国土空间规划体系相对应。研究结果将为以大城市为中心的跨尺度生态系统修复和生态安全格局构建提供科学参考。     

Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China

It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.     

Development and evaluation of Trichoderma asperellum preparation for control of sheath blight of rice (Oryza sativa L.)

Sheath blight, which is caused by Rhizoctonia solani, is a disease that majorly impacts rice production. A biocontrol agent used for control rice sheath blight must be sprayed on the stem at specific times during rice growth, a process that is labour-intensive and renders the antagonist vulnerable to environmental factors. In this study, Trichoderma asperellum T12 was used to produce preparation by solid-state fermentation using a surface-response method. Rice hull was selected as a carrier based on its ability to sustain the T12 floating in the water and protect T12 from ultraviolet irradiation. The production of a T12-based preparation required 32% wheat bran, 7% inoculum, 2.3 g kg^?1 (NH₄)₂SO₄ and 65% water content, with fermentation at 27.5°C for 30 days and agitation every six days. The preparation demonstrated 90% biocontrol efficacy and significantly (P > 0.05) increased the seed-set rate and 1000-grain weight as compared with the pathogen treatment. The population of Trichoderma on the surface of rice leaf sheath in the treatment applied with T12 preparation increased from 232 cfu (colony forming units) g^?1 fw (fresh weight) to 436 cfu g^?1 fw during rice growth stage, which was significantly (P > 0.05) higher than pathogen treatment. The population of R. solani on the leaf sheath increased from 41 cfu g^?1 fw to 271 cfu g^?1 fw in the pathogen treatment, while remained stable (P > 0.05) at level of 10–23 cfu g^?1 fw in T12 preparation applied treatment. Biocontrol of sheath blight by the addition of the preparation to the soil is effective and decreases the costs of agro-industrial waste disposal.