Statistical Inference Methods for Two Crossing Survival Curves: A Comparison of Methods

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér—von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.     

10-Year Overview of the Hospital-Based Prevalence and Treatment of Congenital Cataracts: The CCPMOH Experience

A review of 6 years of hospitalization charts from Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center (ZOC) revealed that congenital cataracts (CC) accounted for 2.39% of all cataract in-patient cases and that the age at surgery was decreasing before the establishment of the Childhood Cataract Program of the Chinese Ministry of Health (CCPMOH) in December 2010. We aimed to investigate data from the 4 years (January 2011 to December 2014) following the establishment of the CCPMOH, compared, and combined with data from the previous study period (January 2005 to December 2010) to generate a 10-year overview of the hospital-based prevalence and treatment of CC. In the 4-year period after CCPMOH establishment, the prevalence of CC was 2.01% in all hospitalizations, and was 2.78% in all cataract in-patients. Most of the eligible CC in-patients (71%) lived in south China. The ratio of boys to girls was 1.42:1. Nearly 2/3 of the patients underwent cataract extraction with primary intraocular lens (IOL) implantation at a mean age of 78.40±51.45 months, and cataract extraction surgeries without IOL implantation were performed in the remaining 1/3 of patients at a mean age of 10.03±15.92 months. After CCPMOH establishment, an increased incidence of CC was revealed, and the CC in-patients were younger than the patients in the previous period. The 10-year overview (2421 CC in-patients from 206630 hospitalizations) revealed upward trends in both the number and the prevalence of CC and a further reduction in age at surgery. In conclusion, the data from 4-year period after CCPMOH establishment and the 10-year overview showed upward trends in the hospital-based prevalence of CC cases and a further reduction in age at surgery, likely reflecting the effects of the CCPMOH establishment and providing useful information for further CC studies and a valuable foundation for the prevention and treatment of this cause of childhood blindness.     

Improved two‐stage group sequential procedures for testing a secondary endpoint after the primary endpoint achieves significance

In two‐stage group sequential trials with a primary and a secondary endpoint, the overall type I error rate for the primary endpoint is often controlled by an α‐level boundary, such as an O'Brien‐Fleming or Pocock boundary. Following a hierarchical testing sequence, the secondary endpoint is tested only if the primary endpoint achieves statistical significance either at an interim analysis or at the final analysis. To control the type I error rate for the secondary endpoint, this is tested using a Bonferroni procedure or any α‐level group sequential method. In comparison with marginal testing, there is an overall power loss for the test of the secondary endpoint since a claim of a positive result depends on the significance of the primary endpoint in the hierarchical testing sequence. We propose two group sequential testing procedures with improved secondary power: the improved Bonferroni procedure and the improved Pocock procedure. The proposed procedures use the correlation between the interim and final statistics for the secondary endpoint while applying graphical approaches to transfer the significance level from the primary endpoint to the secondary endpoint. The procedures control the familywise error rate (FWER) strongly by construction and this is confirmed via simulation. We also compare the proposed procedures with other commonly used group sequential procedures in terms of control of the FWER and the power of rejecting the secondary hypothesis. An example is provided to illustrate the procedures.     

Tongxinluo Protects against Hypertensive Kidney Injury in Spontaneously-Hypertensive Rats by Inhibiting Oxidative Stress and Activating Forkhead Box O1 Signaling

Hypertension is an independent risk factor for the progression of chronic renal failure, and oxidative stress plays a critical role in hypertensive renal damage. Forkbox O1(FoxO1) signaling protects cells against oxidative stress and may be a useful target for treating oxidative stress-induced hypertension. Tongxinluo is a traditional Chinese medicine with cardioprotective and renoprotective functions. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the effects of Tongxinluo in hypertensive renal damage in spontaneously hypertensive rats(SHRs)and elucidate the possible involvement of oxidative stress and FoxO1 signaling in its molecular mechanisms. SHRs treated with Tongxinluo for 12 weeks showed a reduction in systolic blood pressure. In addition to increasing creatinine clearance, Tongxinluo decreased urinary albumin excretion, oxidative stress injury markers including malondialdehyde and protein carbonyls, and expression of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase subunits and its activity in SHR kidneys. While decreasing phosphorylation of FoxO1, Tongxinluo also inhibited the phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase1/2 and p38 and enhanced manganese superoxide dismutase and catalase activities in SHR kidneys. Furthermore, histology revealed attenuation of glomerulosclerosis and renal podocyte injury, while Tongxinluo decreased the expression of α-smooth muscle actin, extracellular matrixprotein, transforming growth factor β1 and small mothers against decapentaplegic homolog 3,and improved tubulointerstitial fibrosis in SHR kidneys. Finally, Tongxinluo inhibited inflammatory cell infiltration as well as expression of tumor necrosis factor-α and interleukin-6. In conclusion, Tongxinluo protected SHRs against hypertension-induced renal injury by exerting antioxidant, antifibrotic, and anti-inflammatory activities. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of these effects may involve inhibition of oxidative stress and functional activation of FoxO1 signaling.     

Influence of Phytase Transgenic Corn on the Intestinal Microflora and the Fate of Transgenic DNA and Protein in Digesta and Tissues of Broilers

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of phytase transgenic corn (PTC) on intestinal microflora, and the fate of transgenic DNA and protein in the digesta and tissues of broilers. A total of 160 1-day-old Arbor Acres commercial male broilers were randomly assigned to 20 cages (8 chicks per cage) with 10 cages (replicates) for each treatment. Birds were fed with a diet containing either PTC (54.0% during 1–21 days and 61.0% during 22–42 days) or non-transgenic isogenic control corn (CC) for a duration of 42 days. There were no significant differences (P>0.05) between birds fed with the PTC diets and those fed with the CC diets in the quantities of aerobic bacteria, anaerobic bacteria, colibacillus and lactobacilli, or microbial diversities in the contents of ileum and cecum. Transgenic phyA2 DNA was not detected, but phyA2 protein was detected in the digesta of duodenum and jejunum of broilers fed with the PTC diets. Both transgenic phyA2 DNA and protein fragments were not found in the digesta of the ileum and rectum, heart, liver, kidney, and breast or thigh muscles of broilers fed with the PTC diets. It was concluded that PTC had no adverse effect on the quantity and diversity of gut microorganisms; Transgenic phyA2 DNA or protein was rapidly degraded in the intestinal tract and was not transferred to the tissues of broilers.